This book includes discussions related to solutions of such tasks as: probabilistic description of the investment function; recovering the income function from GDP estimates; development of models for the economic cycles; selecting the time interval of pseudo-stationarity of cycles; estimating characteristics/parameters of cycle models; analysis of accuracy of model factors. All of the above constitute the general principles of a theory explaining the phenomenon of economic cycles and provide mathematical tools for their quantitative description. The introduced theory is applicable to macroeconomic analyses as well as econometric estimations of economic cycles.

This is a book on stochastic dynamic macroeconomics from a Keynesian perspective. It shows that including Keynesian features in intertemporal models considerably contributes to resolve major puzzles arising in the context of the Dynamic General Equilibrium (DGE) model. It also demonstrates that including microeconomic intertemporal behavior of economic agents in macroeconomics is not inconsistent with Keynesian economics.

This book analyses stochastic dynamic systems across a broad spectrum in economics and finance. The major unifying theme is the coherent and rigorous treatment of uncertainty and its implications for describing stochastic processes by the stochastic differential equations of the fundamental models in various fields. Pertinent subjects are interrelated, juxtaposed, and examined for consistency in theoretical and empirical contexts. The volume consists of three parts: Developments in Stochastic Dynamics; Stochastic Dynamics in Basic Economic Growth Models; Intertemporal Optimisation in Consumption, Finance, and Growth. Key topics include: fractional Brownian motion in finance; moment evolution of Gaussian and geometric Wiener diffusions; stochastic kinematics and stochastic mechanics; stochastic growth in continuous time; time delays and Hopf bifurcation; consumption and investment strategies; differential systems in finance and life insurance; uncertainty of technological innovations; investment and employment cycles; stochastic control theory; and risk aversion. The works collected in this book serves to bridge the "old" deterministic dynamics and the "new" stochastic dynamics. The collection is important for scholars and advanced graduate students of economics, statistics, and applied mathematics.

This paper analyzes the evolution of the degree of global cyclical interdependence over the period 1960-2005. We categorize the 106 countries in our sample into three groups-industrial countries, emerging markets, and other developing economies. Using a dynamic factor model, we then decompose macroeconomic fluctuations in key macroeconomic aggregates-output, consumption, and investment-into different factors. These are: (i) a global factor, which picks up fluctuations that are common across all variables and countries; (ii) three group-specific factors, which capture fluctuations that are common to all variables and all countries within each group of countries; (iii) country factors, which are common across all aggregates in a given country; and (iv) idiosyncratic factors specific to each time series. Our main result is that, during the period of globalization (1985-2005), there has been some convergence of business cycle fluctuations among the group of industrial economies and among the group of emerging market economies. Surprisingly, there has been a concomitant decline in the relative importance of the global factor. In other words, there is evidence of business cycle convergence within each of these two groups of countries but divergence (or decoupling) between them.

Introducing Advanced Macroeconomics: Growth and Business Cycles, 2nd edition provides students with a thorough understanding of fundamental models in macroeconomics and introduces them to methods of formal macroeconomic analysis. Split into two sections, the first half of the book focuses on macroeconomics for the long run, introducing and developing basic models of growth and structural unemployment. The second half of the book deals with the economy in the short run, focusing on the explanation of business fluctuations. This new edition retains the popular pitch and level established in the 1st edition and continues to bridge the gap between intermediate macroeconomics texts and more advanced textbooks.

Experts define, review, and evaluate economic fluctuations Economic and business uncertainty dominate today's economic analyses. This new Encyclopedia illuminates the subject by offering 323 original articles on every major aspect of business cycles, fluctuations, financial crises, recessions, and depressions. The work of more than 200 experts, including many of the leading researchers in the field, the articles cover a broad range of subjects, including capsule biographies of leading economists born before 1920. Individual entries explore banking panics, the cobweb cycle, consumer durables, the depression of 1937-1938, Otto Eckstein, Friedrich Engels, experimental price bubbles, forced savings, lass-Steagall Act, Friedrich hagen, qualitative indicators, use of macro-econometric models, monetary neutrality, Phillips Curve, Paul Samuelson, Say's law, supply-side recessions, James Tokin, trend and random wages, Thorstein Veblen, worker-job turnover, and more.

Real Business Cycle theory combines the remains of monetarism with the new classical macroeconomics, and has become one of the dominant approaches within contemporary macroeconomics today. This volume presents: * the authoritative anthology in RBC. The work contains the major articles introducing and extending the theory as well as critical literature * an extensive introduction which contains an expository summary and critical evaluation of RBC theory * comprehensive coverage and balance between seminal papers and extensions; proponents and critics; and theory and empirics. Macroeconomics is a compulsory element in most economics courses, and this book will be an essential guide to one of its major theories.