We stress test the global economy to extreme climate change-related shocks on large and interconnected economies. Our analysis (i) identifies large and interconnected economies vulnerable to climate change-related shocks; (ii) estimates these economies’ external financing needs-at-risk due to these shocks, and (iii) quantifies the spillovers to the global economy using a global network model. We show that large and interconnected economies vulnerable to climate change could trigger a drain of $1.8 trillion in international reserves (2 percent of 2019’s global GDP). Domestic and multilateral macroeconomic policies can help reduce these global lossess to about $0.8 trillion. The scenario highlights the importance of considering global spillovers when assessing the impact of climate change-related shocks.

The world has become more interconnected over the past few decades. Against this backdrop, economic and financial contagion following adverse shocks can have a severe impact on the global economy. How systemic can the effects of contagion be? What specific transmission channels are involved? What is their relative importance? We address these questions using a multilayered global network model of contagion that simulates the impact of sovereign debt default on the global economy. We also develop a measure of global systemic risk and use bank stress testing techniques to quantify the systemic impact of the shock and the extent of contagion on the global economy. Our model shows that economic and financial contagion are highly non-linear, and many bystander economies can experience significant negative effects as the initial default is spread through the network. This suggests that many economies might be systemically more important than what conventional measures of size or openness might suggest.

Ireland has considerably strengthened financial sector regulation and supervision since the 2016 FSAP, aided by the ECB/SSM, and is working with European and international regulators to strengthen oversight of the large market-based finance (MBF) sector. This strengthening is evidenced by a successful navigation through the challenges of Brexit and the pandemic. Despite global headwinds, Ireland is exiting the pandemic with strong economic growth and a highly capitalized and liquid banking system. The financial system has grown rapidly and in complexity, especially after Brexit, and Ireland has become a European base for large financial groups. The MBF sector has grown to the second largest in Europe, with global interlinkages.

'Offers hope and good sense in equal measure' Ian Bremmer 'A sensible plan for reform that can help us create a fairer and more equitable world' Sheryl Sandberg Problems are mounting. We face sputtering growth, an escalating climate emergency, worsening inequality, poor policy responses, increasing nationalism and a decline in global co-operation. But a permacrisis need not be permanent. In this book, three of the most internationally respected and experienced thinkers of our time, Gordon Brown, Mohamed A. El-Erian and Michael Spence, writing with Reid Lidow, explain where we’ve gone wrong and set out what could be done to bring about a brighter future for generations to come. They look beyond today’s headlines and political rhetoric to offer a bold, big-picture vision and nuanced, achievable solutions for fixing our broken approaches to growth, economic management, and governance. The world is changing. What that change looks like is up to us.

This book presents a new System Dynamics model (the ERRE model), a novel stock and flow consistent global impact assessment model designed by the authors to address the financial risks emerging from the interaction between economic growth and environmental limits under the presence of shocks. Building on the World3-03 Limits to Growth model, the ERRE links the financial system with the energy, agriculture and climate systems through the real economy, by means of feedback loops, time lags and non-linear rationally bounded decision making. Prices and their interaction with growth, inflation and interest rates are assumed to be the main driver of economic failure while reaching planetary limits. The model allows for the stress-testing of fat tail extreme risk scenarios, such as climate shocks, energy transition, monetary policies and carbon taxes. Risks are addressed via scenario analyses, compared to real available data, and assessed in terms of the economic theory that lies behind. The book outlines the case for a government led system change within this decade, where the market alone cannot lead to sustainable prosperity. This book will be of great interest to scholars of climate change, behavioural, ecological and evolutionary economics, green finance, and sustainable development.

Mexico has a resilient financial system but a low level of financial inclusion. The financial system is smaller than in peer countries and is dominated by commercial banks that have had large capital and liquidity buffers for years. Despite these buffers and the high profitability in the banking sector, credit growth has been low due to both supply and demand factors, with banks targeting mainly the prime segments of the economy. The COVID-19 pandemic has had a limited impact on the financial system, reflecting a mix of resumption in mobility and support from global and domestic policies.

Accidents are inevitable in our lives and they affect us in many aspects ranging from economical to social, health to legal. While it is not possible to remove accidents from our lives completely, it is possible to develop new techniques or set new standards or prepare contingency plans to reduce their possibility of happening or to alleviate their consequences. This book, aiming to enlighten our ways to prevent accidents, is a compilation of articles authored by reputable international academicians from several disciplines such as maritime studies, defense technologies, emergency management, and psychiatry and behavioral medicine.

Part of the Elgar Series on Central Banking and Monetary Policy, this book explores the relationship between central banking, monetary policy and the economy at large. It focuses on the specific relationship between central banking, monetary policy and the environment as central banks wake up to new realities.