This book studies the measurement and the determinants of systemic risk, paying special attention to the role of the Credit Default Swaps (CDSs) either as financial instruments containing valuable information about the soundness of the reference institutions or as a market whose distress contributes to potential systemic shocks on the economy. The measurement of systemic risk is addressed from two perspectives, aggregate and individual contribution to systemic risk where the former refers to the level of systemic risk in the overall economy and the latter to the individual contribution of each financial institution to the overall systemic risk. The analysis of the determinants of the individual contribution of financial institutions to systemic risk focuses on the effect of their portfolio holdings of derivatives. Finally, this thesis studies the liquidity commonalities and their determinants in the corporate CDS worldwide markets. The main participants in these markets are systemically important financial institutions (SIFIs) and so abrupt changes in the market liquidity could cause systemic shocks on the overall economy and, as a consequence, could have adverse effects on global stability.

The Japanese financial system has remained resilient through a series of shocks including the COVID-19 pandemic. Japan’s large and globally well-integrated financial system withstood the pandemic shock, aided by strong capital and liquidity buffers and extensive policy support. Credit provision to the private sector has remained robust since the pandemic, supporting a steady economic recovery.

This technical note consists of five chapters focusing on various aspects of systemic risk analysis across the euro area financial system. The chapters cover bank profitability, balance sheet- and market-based interconnected analysis, contingent claims analysis, and a brief discussion of data gaps in the nonbank, non-insurance (NBNI) financial sector. The ongoing economic recovery will support euro area bank profitability in general, but it is unlikely to resolve the structural challenges faced by the least profitable banks despite some recent improvements. This is important because persistently weak bank profitability is a systemic financial stability concern. Empirical analysis of 109 major euro area banks over 2007–2016 reveals that real GDP growth and the NPL ratio are the most reliable determinants of profitability, after accounting for other factors. Although higher growth would raise profits, a large swath of banks with the weakest profitability would most likely continue to struggle even with a robust recovery. Therefore, banks should take advantage of the current upswing by resolutely addressing their NPL stocks—such a strategy holds the most promise for weak banks’ profitability prospects.

We look at the effect of capital rules on a banking system that is connected through correlated credit exposures and interbank lending. The rules, which combine individual bank characteristics and interconnectivity measures of interbank lending, are to minimize a measure of system-wide losses. Using the detailed German Credit Register for estimation, we find capital rules based on eigenvectors to dominate any other centrality measure, followed by closeness. Compared to the baseline case, capital reallocation based on the Adjacency Eigenvector saves about 15% in system losses as measured by expected bankruptcy costs.

Global Credit Review is an annual publication that provides an overview of the most important developments in global credit markets and the regulatory landscape. The fourth volume covers theoretical and empirical research on credit ratings and credit risk, and reports on recent findings and evolutions of the RMI Credit Research Initiative. The ultimate objective of this publication is to advance the state of research and development in the critical area of credit risk and rating systems. With a distinctive focus on topics related to credit markets and credit risk, this publication will be of interest to finance professionals, policy makers and academics with an interest in credit markets.

The recent global financial crisis has forced a re-examination of risk transmission in the financial sector and how it affects financial stability. Current macroprudential policy and surveillance (MPS) efforts are aimed establishing a regulatory framework that helps mitigate the risk from systemic linkages with a view towards enhancing the resilience of the financial sector. This paper presents a forward-looking framework ("Systemic CCA") to measure systemic solvency risk based on market-implied expected losses of financial institutions with practical applications for the financial sector risk management and the system-wide capital assessment in top-down stress testing. The suggested approach uses advanced contingent claims analysis (CCA) to generate aggregate estimates of the joint default risk of multiple institutions as a conditional tail expectation using multivariate extreme value theory (EVT). In addition, the framework also helps quantify the individual contributions to systemic risk and contingent liabilities of the financial sector during times of stress.

We analyze how bank profitability impacts financial stability from both theoretical and empirical perspectives. We first develop a theoretical model of the relationship between bank profitability and financial stability by exploring the role of non-interest income and retail-oriented business models. We then conduct panel regression analysis to examine the empirical determinants of bank risks and profitability, and how the level and the source of bank profitability affect risks for 431 publicly traded banks (U.S., advanced Europe, and GSIBs) from 2004 to 2017. Results reveal that profitability is negatively associated with both a bank’s contribution to systemic risk and its idiosyncratic risk, and an over-reliance on non-interest income, wholesale funding and leverage is associated with higher risks. Low competition is associated with low idiosyncratic risk but a high contribution to systemic risk. Lastly, the problem loans ratio and the cost-to-income ratio are found to be key factors that influence bank profitability. The paper’s findings suggest that policy makers should strive to better understand the source of bank profitability, especially where there is an over-reliance on market-based non-interest income, leverage, and wholesale funding.

This volume of The International Symposia in Economic Theory and Econometrics explores and investigates contemporary challenges and issues facing the Asia-Pacific economies. For researchers and students of economics and finance, this volume is a fascinating exploration of emerging topics in one the fastest growing economies in the world.

Risk measures play a vital role in many subfields of economics and finance. It has been proposed that risk measures could be analysed in relation to the performance of variables extracted from empirical real-world data. For example, risk measures may help inform effective monetary and fiscal policies and, therefore, the further development of pricing models for financial assets such as equities, bonds, currencies, and derivative securities.A Special Issue of “Risk Measures with Applications in Finance and Economics” will be devoted to advancements in the mathematical and statistical development of risk measures with applications in finance and economics. This Special Issue will bring together the theory, practice and real-world applications of risk measures. This book is a collection of papers published in the Special Issue of “Risk Measures with Applications in Finance and Economics” for Sustainability in 2018.