Abstract: A population of one billion people has the potential for enormous impact on the world food supply, but demographic and food production data for the People's Republic of China have been difficult to obtain. In an effort to fill this gap, two papers are presented which attempt ot synthesize and analyze as much information as is available and make predictions of probable trends in agriculture and related fields in the year 2000 and for the 1985 grain program. Records from 1952-77 are used to estimate cultivated land, animals, energy consumption, farm machinery, fertilizer, and output of grains, soybeans and cotton. The effects of industrailization and resources are considered. Trends are toward population control, although total demand will continue to grow; emphasis on agriculture seems to indicate that production will be capable of keeping up with demand, may result in some dietary improvement, but will not provide for emergency supplies.

It is a pleasant task to welcome the appearance of the American edition of Professor Willy Kraus' valuable work on the economic and social development of the People's Republic of China, first published in German in 1979. The book has been updated in the light of the events that have occurred since the original publication and incorporates the latest statistical information made available by the Chinese authorities with unaccus tomed liberality. The American edition, like its German predecessor, is a monumental achievement of scholarship, attractively presented. In its comprehensiveness, insight, professionalism and wisdom it ranks among the best studies of the subject. It will add to the knowledge of the specialist, and help the interested layman find his way through the complexities of contemporary China's socioeconomic system. Professor Kraus' work is a most timely and welcome addition to a better and more thorough understanding of an absorbing and important subject. June 1982 Jan S. Prybyla Professor of Economics The Pennsylvania State University University Park, Pennsylvania Preface This book deals with China's development policies. It is based on the original German edition (1979), "Wirtschaftliche Entwicklung und sozialer Wandel in der Volksrepublik China," but is not merely a translation of the German original. The rapid changes in Chinese policy within the last two years, together with a sudden deluge of official data on economic and social developments in the People's Republic of China, have called for a basic and comprehensive revision of text and statistics.