The prospects for continuous growth in rice yields have been examined within the context of a simulation model where demand parameters for both rural and urban populations and for different income groups have been used. Coupled with available estimates of supply response parameters, the prospects for a rice surplus in year 2000 appear moderate. On average, only 157,000 metric tons of rice surplus would result if current prices were to prevail. If prices were allowed to adjust, only a negligible price decline would result. That is also the case in the more favorable scenario of high growt of rice yields. Domestic demand would be capable of absorbing the increased rice surplus without an appreciable decline in price. The analysis of the proposal to support rice prices through procurement of domestic production has led to the conclusion that even massive increase of domestic procurement would result in very small price increases while at the same time causing serious storage capacity and budgetary problems for the government.

The chapters in this volume are edited versions of papers presented at the NATO Ad vanced Research Workshop on Environmental Change Adaptation and Security held in Budapest, Hungary, from October 16 - 18, 1997. As is evident in this volume, the papers ranged from descriptions of environmental and health issues in Russia and Eastern Europe to models of sustainable land use. This diversity of perspectives on environ ment and security is indicative of both the breadth of this new area of research as well as the varied background of the researchers involved. The discussions at the NATO workshop were remarkably animated and exciting, not surprising given the interest in the topic. I think this vitality is reflected in the papers in this volume as well. The main purpose of the NATO ARW is to foster research links among researchers from NATO countries and Central and Eastern European States, Russia, and the Newly Independent States. In editing this volume, a decision was made to keep to the spirit of this purpose and-if at all possible-include all papers prepared for the workshop. This required extensive editing and rewriting of some of the papers (and consequent delays in production). A determination was made early in the process by the workshop steering committee that the value of publishing the entire collection of articles out weighed the advantages of accepting only a limited number.

Food security is of vital importance to all nations, but particularly so in developing countries. Governments worldwide are seeking to liberalize agricultural trade, and to change their role from one of controlling trade and prices. Instead these governments seek new roles in encouraging market developments, ensuring quality and providing food security by giving income assistance rather than controlling food supplies. The issue of how this process is being managed in developing countries is the focus of this book. A series of case studies including India, Sri Lanka, Ghana, Zimbabwe, Kenya and Ivory Coast highlights the individuality of approaches and the varying capability and will of governments to take on these new roles.

Major changes have been occurring almost unnoticed in staple value chains in Asia. The Quiet Revolution in Staple Food Value Chains documents and explains the transformation of value chains moving rice and potatoes between the farm gate and the consumer in Bangladesh, the People’s Republic of China, and India. The changes noted are the rapid rise of supermarkets, modern cold storage facilities, large rice mills, and commercialized small farmers using input-intensive, mechanized technologies. These changes affect food security in ways that are highly relevant for policymakers across Asia—the rise of supermarkets provides cheaper staples, more direct relations in the chains combined with branding have increased traceability, and the rise of cold storage has brought higher incomes for potato farmers and all-season access for potato consumers. The book also joins two debates that have long been separate and parallel—food industry and agribusiness development and market competitiveness—with the food security and poverty alleviation agend

This book examines the effects of trade liberalization policies on the rice sector in South Asia with a special focus on Bangladesh. It draws on regional trading policies prevailing in South Asia and will appeal to policy makers, politicians, academics,

This book describes how Bangladesh transformed its food markets and food policies to free the country from the constant threat of famine. Since 1990, the Bangladeshi government has dismantled its food rationing system, privatized grain distribution, eased restrictions on international trade, and reduced its own presence in grain markets. The foundation for these developments was laid in the preceding decades. Improvements in agricultural science in the 1970s roughly doubled farm yields, while in the 1980s liberalization of irrigation restrictions, the lifting of import barriers to irrigation technology, and the privatization of fertilizer distribution rapidly increased rice cultivation. These increases in production, coupled with improvements in infrastructure and a more slowly growing and increasingly urban population, have substantially changed the structure of food grain markets, leading to increased marketing volumes, lower prices, and significantly larger private grain stocks. The book sets the Bangladeshi case in the larger context of the South Asian subcontinent and other developing countries in Asia. The authors examine the shifting structure of supply and demand in the grain markets, the history of government intervention in those markets, and the more recent changes that altered the arguments for such intervention and led to policy changes. The case of Bangladesh also has more general relevance as a study of the outcomes of a market-oriented reform program.

Provides a detailed analysis of the achievements and disappointments of the modern Indian economy, and an exploration of the issues which are shaping India's economic future. Offers a comprehensive overview of the state of India's economy in the twenty-first century and is essential for postgraduates and scholars interested in this area.

Data. Farm-level diversification and product mix. Cluster analysis. Univariate analysis. Longitudinal analysis. Conclusions and policy implications.

Background of the study; Methodology and data sources; Wheat in the Agricultural Economy of Bangladesh; Financial prices and economical prices; Profitability measures; Efficiency measures; Sensitivity analysis; Conclusions and policy implications; Appendix 1: data collection activities; Appendix 2: supplementary tables.

Rice production an policy context; Structure and performance of Rice markets; Food Demand and Calorie Consumption; Poverty and Rice Prices; Impact of Further liberalization of Rice markets; Conclusions and policy implications; Methods to analyze market integration; Derivation of Welfare Measures; Foreign demand elasticity for Vietnamese Rice; Description of the Viet Nam Agricultural Spatial equilibrium Model.