There is long-standing debate on how population growth affects national economies. A new report from Population Matters examines the history of this debate and synthesizes current research on the topic. The authors, led by Harvard economist David Bloom, conclude that population age structure, more than size or growth per se, affects economic development, and that reducing high fertility can create opportunities for economic growth if the right kinds of educational, health, and labor-market policies are in place. The report also examines specific regions of the world and how their differing policy environments have affected the relationship between population change and economic development.

The Arab Republic of Egypt was well on the path to achieving its demographic dividend at the turn of this century but has gone off track due to a reversal in its earlier fertility decline. But what is the demographic dividend? It reflects the economic benefits when a country undergoes a rapid decline in mortality, then fertility, and the consequent demographic transition. Due to lower fertility and fewer children per household, a growing working-age population increases productivity and per capita income, leading to accumulated savings, investments, and economic growth, underscoring the strong link between demographics and economic growth. Fortunately, Egypt has the political will, resources, and capacity to achieve its demographic dividend in the next decade, as this report by a team of Egyptian and World Bank experts shows. It reviews the trends in determinants of the rising total fertility rate, the likely factors that contributed to Egypt’s fertility decline reversal, the government’s initial response, and the sectoral and social drivers that may have influenced this fertility decline reversal. It also assesses the economic impact of the demographic changes, including estimates of forgone savings due to the increased fertility and of potential future gains if the country were to regain and then accelerate its fertility decline. Drawing on global evidence, the report proposes six policy and strategic priorities, complemented by four policy imperatives. These priorities aim to increase the contraceptive prevalence rate (the most important of the six), reduce school dropouts, increase female labor force participation, delay early marriage, leverage social protection programs, and improve governance of the country's population program. The four imperatives aim to assure broad-based socioeconomic development and they include creating productive jobs; investing in and leveraging human capital; enhancing financial inclusion and entrepreneurship, especially for women; and sustaining macroeconomic stability. The president's "Decent Life Initiative" and the "National Project for the Development of the Egyptian Family" can be used as the platform to implement many of the proposed policies and strategies. In such a manner, Egypt will be back on track to achieve its demographic dividend.

As fertility rates decrease, a country’s working-age population grows larger relative to the young dependent population. With more people in the labor force and fewer children to support, a country has a window of opportunity for rapid economic growth if the right social and economic investments and policies are made in health, education, governance and the economy. Conversely, research shows that resource requirements to support a large population of children and youth can depress the pace of economic growth and prevent needed investments in human capital. The discourse on responding to this population growth frequently excludes the youth. The result can be an apathetic community of young people who withdraw from participation in political and democratic processes. The book is a compilation of articles that address the issue and highlight solutions from different parts of the world, from members of the Global Diplomacy Lab to external contributors: how they see their work promoting, enhancing and contributing to harvesting the demographic dividend.

This book examines the promises as well as the challenges the demographic dividend brings to sub-Saharan Africa as fertility rates in the region fall and the labor force grows. It offers a detailed analysis of what conditions must be met in order for the region to take full economic advantage of ongoing population dynamics. As the book makes clear, the region will need to accelerate reforms to cope with its demographic transition, in particular the decline of fertility. The continent will need to foster human capital formation through renewed efforts in the areas of education, health and employment. This will entail a true vision and determination on the part of African leaders and their development partners. The book will help readers to gain solid knowledge of the demographic trends and provide insights into socioeconomic policies that eventually might lead sub-Saharan Africa into a successful future.

South Korea’s Demographic Dividend: Echoes of the Past or Prologue to the Future? weaves together the compelling story of social and demographic effects of the economic miracle in South Korea. This exploration of social change examines the demographic dividend: a window of time when a large percentage of a country’s population is in the working ages as a result of low fertility and declining mortality. The working-age population benefits from a relatively small dependent population as the size of the elderly cohort is small and the percentage of children is decreasing. This allows the working-age cohort to amass savings and increase productivity. But what happens when that demographic dividend comes to a close and the working age population must support a large elderly population? For centuries South Koreans relied on the intergenerational Confucian contract whereby parents supported children with the reciprocal expectation that children would support their parents in their older years. In South Korea’s Demographic Dividend Dr. Stephen examines what happens to families—and the larger society— when this contract is broken. The book concludes with proposed policies that address the maintenance of social cohesion in light of structural changes in the personal and public spheres as a result of Korea’s unprecedented economic growth.

"The heated Malthusian-Bosrupian debates still rage over consequences of high population growth, rapid urbanization, dense rural populations and young age structures in the face of drought, poverty, food insecurity, environmental degradation, climate change, instability and the global economic crisis. However, while facile generalizations about the lack of demographic change and lack of progress in meeting the MDGs in sub-Saharan Africa are commonplace, they are often misleading and belie the socio-cultural change that is occurring among a vanguard of more educated youth. Even within Ethiopia, the second largest country at the Crossroads of Africa and the Middle East, different narratives emerge from analysis of longitudinal, micro-level analysis as to how demographic change and responses are occurring, some more rapidly than others. The book compares Ethiopia with other Africa countries, and demonstrates the uniqueness of an African-type demographic transition: a combination of poverty-related negative factors (unemployment, disease, food insecurity) along with positive education, health and higher age-of-marriage trends that are pushing this ruggedly rural and land-locked population to accelerate the demographic transition and stay on track to meet most of the MDGs. This book takes great care with the challenges of inadequate data and weak analytical capacity to research this incipient transition, trying to unravel some of the complexities in this vulnerable Horn of Africa country: A slowly declining population growth rates with rapidly declining child mortality, very high chronic under-nutrition, already low urban fertility but still very high rural fertility; and high population-resource pressure along with rapidly growing small urban places”

This book presents empirical observations and theoretical thinking of the fundamental changes in the Chinese economy. It starts with a warning of the arrival of the Lewis Turning Point, which is empirically proven by disappearance of surplus labor force and a rapid increase in wages of unskilled workers. It further reveals that China''s rapid population-aging trend is diminishing the demographic dividend that has kept China''s economic growth rate high. Subsequently, it touches upon employment challenges that arise after reaching the Lewis Turning Point, further propelling urbanization, a balanced regional development, and so on. Finally, it introduces middle-income trap which is one of the biggest challenges China is facing, followed by recommendation of policies for the Chinese government to tackle the challenges ahead. This book should be of great interest to graduates, undergraduates, researchers and specialists who follow closely the economic development and demographic transition of China, the world''s most populous country.

Large cohorts of young adults are poised to add to the working-age population of developing economies. Despite much interest in the consequent growth dividend, the size and circumstances of the potential gains remain under-explored. This study makes progress by focusing on India, which will be the largest individual contributor to the global demographic transition ahead. It exploits the variation in the age structure of the population across Indian states to identify the demographic dividend. The main finding is that there is a large and significant growth impact of both the level and growth rate of the working age ratio. This result is robust to a variety of empirical strategies, including a correction for inter-state migration. The results imply that a substantial fraction of the growth acceleration that India has experienced since the 1980s - sometimes ascribed exclusively to economic reforms - is attributable to changes in the country’s age structure. Moreover, the demographic dividend could add about 2 percentage points per annum to India’s per capita GDP growth over the next two decades. With the future expansion of the working age ratio concentrated in some of India’s poorest states, income convergence may well speed up, a theme likely to recur on the global stage.

Africa is poised on the edge of a potential takeoff to sustained economic growth. This takeoff can be abetted by a demographic dividend from the changes in population age structure. Declines in child mortality, followed by declines in fertility, produce a 'bulge' generation and a large number of working age people, giving a boost to the economy. In the short run lower fertility leads to lower youth dependency rates and greater female labor force participation outside the home. Smaller family sizes also mean more resources to invest in the health and education per child boosting worker productivity. In the long run increased life spans from health improvements mean that this large, high-earning cohort will also want to save for retirement, creating higher savings and investments, leading to further productivity gains. Two things are required for the demographic dividend to generate an African economic takeoff. The first is to speed up the fertility decline that is currently slow or stalled in many countries. The second is economic policies that take advantage of the opportunity offered by demography. While demographic change can produce more, and high quality, workers, this potential workforce needs to be productively employed if Africa is to reap the dividend. However, once underway, the relationship between demographic change and human development works in both directions, creating a virtuous cycle that can accelerate fertility decline, social development, and economic growth. Empirical evidence points to three key factors for speeding the fertility transition: child health, female education, and women's empowerment, particularly through access to family planning. Harnessing the dividend requires job creation for the large youth cohorts entering working age, and encouraging foreign investment until domestic savings and investment increase. The appropriate mix of policies in each country depends on their stage of the demographic transition.