This original and panoramic book proposes that the underlying forces of demography and globalisation will shortly reverse three multi-decade global trends – it will raise inflation and interest rates, but lead to a pullback in inequality. “Whatever the future holds”, the authors argue, “it will be nothing like the past”. Deflationary headwinds over the last three decades have been primarily due to an enormous surge in the world’s available labour supply, owing to very favourable demographic trends and the entry of China and Eastern Europe into the world’s trading system. This book demonstrates how these demographic trends are on the point of reversing sharply, coinciding with a retreat from globalisation. The result? Ageing can be expected to raise inflation and interest rates, bringing a slew of problems for an over-indebted world economy, but is also anticipated to increase the share of labour, so that inequality falls. Covering many social and political factors, as well as those that are more purely macroeconomic, the authors address topics including ageing, dementia, inequality, populism, retirement and debt finance, among others. This book will be of interest and understandable to anyone with an interest on where the world’s economy may be going.

Please note: This is a companion version & not the original book. Sample Book Insights: #1 China’s contribution to global disinflation of the last 35 years and its coming reversal needs to be understood through the lens of history and an understanding of its growth model in the global context. #2 China’s ascent can be traced back to three events and periods. The first was reforms to agriculture in 1978, which led to the creation of special economic zones where foreign investment was allowed. In the second phase, privatisation of state-owned enterprises began in 1992. #3 China’s economy grew greatly between the time it gained WTO membership and the global financial crisis, and it was able to use that growth to its advantage. It became a superpower in the world economy, and its position was cemented after the global financial crisis. #4 China’s aggressive response to the Great Financial Crisis was a major factor in preventing the collapse of the global economy. China’s credit growth surged in the early 90s and after the Great Financial Crisis, and was a major factor in buoying global growth, commodity prices, and emerging market economies.

Alfred A. Marcus and Mazhar Islam examine how demographic changes introduce new challenges for businesses, with a focus on how the world today is divided between disproportionately old and young nations. Taking a broad international perspective, the book illustrates how demography affects underlying conditions in nations, presenting the risks and opportunities for businesses as well as a set of concrete obligations they owe to the nations in which they operate.

Finance & Development, March 2021

Connecting seemingly unrelated instances of essential worker shortages around the world, investment analyst Shamil Ismail builds a compelling and well-researched narrative explaining why aging populations and falling birth rates are leading to a shrinking pool of essential workers in developed countries, which could massively disrupt their societies. Methodically unpacking the factors driving this escalating crisis, he shows why proposed solutions such as automation, AI, and raising the retirement age will not fix the problem. The implications will be widespread, leading to crumbling cities with decaying infrastructure, while economic growth will be stunted by creaking supply chains, declining demand, and a shrinking tax base. Sifting through the data, trends and forecasts, Ismail answers these intriguing questions, allowing us to prepare for the daunting future that lies ahead. - When are we likely to see the first major signs of this new reality? - Which countries will be most impacted, and by when? - How will companies and investment markets be affected? - Can this path to decay be avoided and what can we do? The Age of Decay is a provocative read that will stimulate debate over the impact of the shifting demographics on society. It is an indispensable factor in strategic planning for business leaders, investors and governments. Tautly written with the clever use of occasional fictional narratives, the book distils a wide range of topics into a riveting read. A must-read for anyone interested in how the future could unfold.

At the turn of the 21st Century, Asia pulled one billion people out of poverty in one generation, a meteoric rise suddenly stalled by the COVID-19 pandemic. This volume examines the strengths of the Asian-Pacific response to the pandemic and weaknesses that the region must re-engineer to rebound. It reimagines social and economic pathways to revamp production modes and networks to rekindle sustainable growth. Home to two-thirds of the world's population, the Asia-Pacific Region already accounts for close to half of all global output. By 2050 – after a detour of two centuries and a few pandemics – Asia-Pacific can again become a centrifugal economic and social force. This volume sets out options for policymakers to consider as we head into a new Asia-Pacific Century, one where economic strength will be necessary but insufficient by itself, as inclusion, resilience and sustainability – once seen as moral choices – become imperatives for the planet's future.

Discover what demographics can tell us about the economy, markets, and the future In Demographics Unravelled, renowned Macro-Demographics expert Amlan Roy delivers an insightful and timely exploration of the impact that "people characteristics" have on national economies. Considering factors like gender, race, migrant status, family background, and education, the author delves deeply into a subject that drives market behavior and economic variables, including growth, debt, inflation, employment, and productivity. These have national and international policy implications. In this one-of-a-kind book, you’ll discover: Why the study of demographics is the hidden key to understanding economic growth, asset prices, and capital flows How to use detailed demographics to forecast future scenarios in economics, socioeconomics, geopolitics, and the environment The short-, medium-, and long-term effects of consumer and worker behavior How understanding demographics is key to understanding health, pensions, migration, sustainability and social policies. It is intimately linked to the Sustainable Development Goals of the UN—Gender, Climate, Poverty and Inequality Perfect for institutional investors, insurance professionals, economists, and business leaders, Demographics Unravelled will also earn a place in the libraries of academics and students studying a variety of economic disciplines and seeking a one-stop and in-depth discussion of demographics-driven macroeconomic effects.

A sweeping case that a new age of economic localization will reunite place and prosperity, putting an end to the last half century of globalization—by one of the preeminent economic journalists writing today “This invaluable book is as bold in its ambitions as it is readable.”—Ian Bremmer, New York Times bestselling author of The Power of Crisis ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR: Kirkus Reviews At the dawn of the twenty-first century, Thomas Friedman, in The World Is Flat, declared globalization the new economic order. But the reign of globalization as we’ve known it is over, argues Financial Times columnist and CNN analyst Rana Foroohar, and the rise of local, regional, and homegrown business is now at hand. With bare supermarket shelves and the shortage of PPE, the pandemic brought the fragility of global trade and supply chains into stark relief. The tragic war in Ukraine and the political and economic chaos that followed have further underlined the vulnerabilities of globalization. The world, it turns out, isn’t flat—in fact, it’s quite bumpy. This fragmentation has been coming for decades, observes Foroohar. Our neoliberal economic philosophy of prioritizing efficiency over resilience and profits over local prosperity has produced massive inequality, persistent economic insecurity, and distrust in our institutions. This philosophy, which underpinned the last half century of globalization, has run its course. Place-based economics and a wave of technological innovations now make it possible to keep operations, investment, and wealth closer to home, wherever that may be. With the pendulum of history swinging back, Homecoming explores both the challenges and the possibilities of this new era, and how it can usher in a more equitable and prosperous future.