Since the 1990s, the economic development of Central and Eastern Europe has maintained high economic growth rates, seemingly leading to an era of prosperity. This very positive vision of future economic success, linked to current political backlash and a long history of economic adversity, is a thin veil of the economic “way west” for so-called transition countries. The Middle-Income Trap in Central and Eastern Europe examines the reality of the diminishing marginal utility of further international investments alongside the pitfalls of higher government spending to cultivate innovation which ultimately makes foreign capital less attractive. In this volume authors from diverse disciplinary perspectives reflect on current debates surrounding the developmental bottlenecks in East-Central Europe. Their common goal is to analyze the manner of socio-economic transformation, question of the relevance and impact of the “middle-income trap” and identify possible ways to escape it.

This edited volume examines the development path of eight Central and Eastern European countries with an overlapping historical background that joined the European Union between 2004 and 2013, and identifies the main similarities and differences between the countries concerned. Based on wide comparative data analysis of Bulgaria, Croatia, The Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, and Slovenia, each chapter in the volume provides detailed information about the state of the economy in a specific area preceding the pandemic shock. The book offers a detailed snapshot of the state of the different areas of the economy, starting from the time when the countries concerned came out of the 2008 financial crisis, up to the date when COVID-19 hit. Further, each chapter analyzes the effects of this unprecedented shock on a particular field, which is followed by highlighting the main problems the countries are facing at present and in the near future, together with identifying the available policy options. Finally, before concluding and making general and country-specific policy recommendations, some thoughts will be given to longer-term prospects. More specifically, the question of how the subject area could contribute to avoiding the "middle-income-trap" that this region may be facing will be addressed. The comprehensive approach makes this volume a must-read for scholars and students of economics, as well as policy decision-makers in Europe, interested in a better understanding of the region's economic development.

The aim of this paper is to analyze how different models of transformation in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) increased or decreased the risk of being stuck in the middle-income trap (MIT). The key finding is that the CEE and CIS countries are, from a definition point of view, not materially at risk of the MIT as out of nine selected MIT definitions, none of the CEE or CIS countries were “stuck” more than three times. At the same time, the CEE countries are more at risk of falling into the MIT than the CIS countries; however this is because the CIS is a poorer region and is not near the lower MIT thresholds. The CEE countries had a better start at the beginning of the transformation and on average implemented a better set of transformation models; however, some CEE countries are now struggling to permanently join the advanced countries and CIS countries are, on average, far behind that. The literature review on transformation models and the analysis of the “jumps” in the World Bank ranking classification suggest that while the MIT is not a concern for CEE or CIS countries, in order to speed up convergence, CIS countries might consider more shocks and consistently following free market related approaches. The study fills a gap in the literature on the MIT which has thoroughly analyzed the Asian and Latin American countries but has provided little analysis of the CEE and CIS countries.

This book examines how foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows to Central and Eastern Europe have changed after the Great Recession. It argues that beyond their cyclical effects, the economic crisis and the changing competitiveness of Central and Eastern European countries have had structural impacts on FDI in the region. FDI has traditionally been viewed as the key driver of national development, but the apparent structural shift means that focusing on cheap labour as a competitive advantage is no longer a viable strategy for the countries in the region. The authors argue that these countries need to move beyond the narrative of upgrading (attracting FDI inflows with increasingly higher value added), and focus on ensuring greater value capture instead. A potential way for doing this is by developing the conditions in which innovative national companies can emerge, thrive and eventually develop into lead firms of global value chains. The book provides readers with a highly informative account of the reasons why this shift is necessary, as well as diverse perspectives and extensive discussions on the dynamics and structural impacts of FDI in post-crisis Central and Eastern Europe.

This interdisciplinary volume addresses the special challenges that middle-income countries confront from both a theoretical and a practical perspective.

This book explores the essence of the middle-income trap based on two major perspectives, namely “economic transformation” and “social transformation”. China has experienced high-speed economic growth for nearly 40 years since the adoption of the Reform and Opening policies. However, China’s economic growth has been slowing down significantly in recent years. Has China tumbled into the middle-income trap? This book reveals the essence of the middle-income trap is that a country's economic growth is facing a "double squeeze" in the middle-income stage, while the social structure and system are unsuitable for the new social development stage, which leads to economic stagnation or recession, and the aggravation of social contradictions, that is, the double predicament of economic transformation and social transformation. This judgment is of great value for understanding the problems encountered in the current development of China.

The integration of post-socialist Central and Eastern Europe into the EU is one of the success stories of European development. The region has seen significant economic convergence, dramatic changes in socio-economic indicators and improvements in the natural environment. However, some challenges remain, such as political divergence, public governance issues and population demographics. This book identifies and analyses the key post-1990 developments across the New Member States at the sub-national and national levels, with frequent country-level and regional comparisons. Careful attention is paid to drawing out commonalities in development trajectories while appreciating each country’s unique context. Drawing on the academic literature and illuminating empirical material, the broad range of topics discussed in the book paints a detailed picture of both change and stability in Central and Eastern Europe. It will be valuable reading for advanced students, researchers and policymakers in regional studies, European studies, human geography, political economy and transition economics.

The term ‘Middle-Income Trap’ refers to countries which stagnate economically after reaching a certain level of per capita income on the basis of labour- and capital-intensive growth, and are struggling to transition towards more skill-intensive and technology-driven development. It has resonance for the increasing number of countries in Asia who have either languished in middle-income status for extended periods of time, or are worried about growth slow-downs. This book sets outs the conceptual underpinnings of the Middle-Income Trap and explores the various ways it can be defined. It also focuses on the debate surrounding the Middle-Income Trap which questions the appropriate institutional and policy settings for middle-income countries to enable them to continue past the easy phase of economic growth. The book engages with this debate by investigating the role of institutions, human capital, and trade policy in helping countries increase their income levels and by highlighting factors which enable the shift to higher and qualitatively better growth. It questions how the large emerging economies in Asia such as China, Indonesia, and India are currently grappling with the challenges of transitioning from labour-intensive to technology- and knowledge-intensive production, and discusses what can be learnt from the countries that have been able to escape the trap to attain high-income status. Providing a conceptual framework for the Middle-Income Trap, this book will be of interest to students and scholars of Asian Economics, Comparative Economics and Asian Studies.

Twenty-five years into transformation, Central and Eastern European regions have undergone substantial socio-economic restructuring, integrating into European and global networks and producing new patterns of regional differentiation and development. Yet post-socialist modernisation has not been without its contradictions, manifesting in increasing social and territorial inequalities. Recent studies also suggest there are apparent limits to post-socialist growth models, accompanying a new set of challenges within an increasingly uncertain world. Aiming to deliver a new synthesis of regional development issues at the crossroads between ‘post-socialism’ and ‘post-transition’, this book identifies the main driving forces of spatial restructuring in Central and Eastern Europe, and charts the different regional development paths which take shape against the backdrop of post-crisis Europe. A comparative approach is used to highlight common development challenges and the underlying patterns of socio-economic differentiation alike. The issues investigated within the Handbook extend to a discussion of the varied economic consequences of transition, the social structures and institutional systems which underpin development processes, and the broadly understood sustainability of Central and Eastern Europe’s current development model. This book will be of interest to academics and policymakers working in the fields of regional studies, economic geography, development studies and policy.

This paper discusses the robust growth that continues in most Central and Southeastern European economies as well as in Turkey. Accommodative macroeconomic policies, improving financial intermediation, and rising real wages have been behind the region’s mostly consumption-driven rebound, while private investment remained subdued. In the near-term, strong domestic demand is expected to continue supporting growth amid continued low or negative inflation. The Russian economy went through a sharp contraction last year amid plunging oil prices and sanctions. Other CIS countries were hurt by domestic political and financial woes, as well as by weak demand from Russia. In 2016, output contraction is projected to moderate to around 11⁄2 percent from 41⁄4 percent in 2015 as the shocks that hit the CIS economies gradually reverberate less and activity stabilizes. In the baseline, a combination of supportive monetary policy and medium-term fiscal consolidation remains valid for many economies in the region.