Renowned economist Andrew Smithers offers prescriptive advice and economic theory on avoiding the next financial crisis In The Road to Recovery, Andrew Smithers—one of a handful of respected economists to have accurately predicted the most recent global financial crisis—argues that the neoclassical consensus governing global economic decision-making must be revised in order to avoid the next financial collapse. He argues that the current low interest rates and budget deficits have prevented the recession becoming a depression but that those policies cannot be continuously repeated and a new consensus for action must be found. He offers practical guidance on reducing government, household, and business debt; changing the economic incentives for the management class that currently inhibit long-term growth; and rebalancing national economies both internally and externally. Further, he explains how central bankers must broaden the economic theories that guide their decisions to include the major factors of debt and asset prices. Offers practical, real-world economic policies for restructuring and rebalancing the global economic system Presents a modern economic theory for preventing the next collapse Ideal for economists, investors, fund managers, and central bankers Written by an economist described by the legendary Barton Biggs as "one of the five best, most dispassionate, erudite analysts in the world" As the global economy continues the long climb out of recession, it's imperative that central bankers and other economic decision-makers not repeat the mistakes of the past. The Road to Recovery offers prescriptive guidance on redesigning an economic system that is healthy, stable, and beneficial to all.

In this paper, we investigate the economic consequences of pandemics from an idea-based theory of economic growth. We assume that pandemics pose a threat to research productivity and analyse the long-term consequences of pandemic shocks to innovation output. We demonstrate that following a pandemic, innovation output is disrupted for approximately seven years. The effect of pandemic shocks on innovation output varies between countries, and sector to sector regarding economic activity. Pandemic shocks lead to a short-term drop in the number of patent applications. Crucially, the duration of a pandemic has a strong effect on innovation output. Overall, the effects of this most recent pandemic on future innovation output, and subsequently on growth, are expected to be felt long into the future. This paper supports the policies designed to reduce the effect of the “Great Lockdown” on research productivity. Policies that target the more innovative firms are moving in the right direction in terms of reducing the time it will take for innovation to recover from the effects of COVID-19.

Contents: (1) Background: Severity of the 2008-2009 Recession; Policy Responses to the Financial Crisis and Recession: Monetary Policy Actions; Fiscal Policy Actions; (2) Is Sustained Economic Recovery Underway?; (3) The Shape of Economic Recovery: Demand Side Problems?: Consumption Spending; Investment Spending; Net Exports; Supply Side Problems?; Policy Responses to Increase the Pace of Economic Recovery: The Case for More Fiscal Stimulus; The Case Against More Fiscal Stimulus; The Case Against More Monetary Stimulus; Economic Projections. This is a print on demand edition of an important, hard-to-find publication.

Representatives from prestigious academic and financial institutions, Congress and the media offer advice on resolving the international debt crisis between selected developing countries and creditor banks in the United States and other advanced countries. Their advice is contained in a report of the Twentieth Century Fund Task Force on International Debt. A background paper by Dornbusch follows the report and provides information about the origin of the crises in the early 1980s, the immediate response, the emergence of the Baker plan and alternative approaches. ISBN 0-87078-228-2: $18.95.