In the transformation of agri-food systems in developing countries, we usually see rapid changes in the livestock sector. However, good data for clearly understanding this transformation are often lacking, especially so in Africa. Relying on a combination of diverse large-scale datasets and methods, we analyze transformation patterns in the dairy value chain supplying Addis Ababa, the capital and biggest city of Ethiopia. Over the last decade, we note a rapid increase in expenditures on dairy products by urban consumers, especially among the better-off. Relatedly, the number of dairy processing firms in Ethiopia tripled over the same period, supplying a significant part of these dairy products, especially pasteurized milk, to the city’s residents. The number of dairy traders increased rapidly as well, with competition between them becoming more intense over time. Upstream at the production level, we find improved access to livestock services, higher adoption of cross-bred cows, a shift from grazing to commercial feeds, an increase in milk yields, expanding liquid milk markets, a sizable urban farm sector supplying almost one-third of all liquid milk consumed in the city, and an upscaling process with larger commercial dairy farms becoming more prevalent. However, average milk yields are still low and not all dairy farmers are included in this transformation process. Small farms with dairy animals as well as those in more remote areas benefit less from access to services and adopt less these modern practices. For these more disadvantaged farmers, stagnation in milk yields and even declines – depending on the data source used – are observed.

Ethiopia has experienced impressive agricultural growth and poverty reduction, stemming in part from substantial public investments in agriculture. Yet, the agriculture sector now faces increasing land and water constraints along with other challenges to growth. Ethiopia’s Agrifood System: Past Trends, Present Challenges, and Future Scenarios presents a forward-looking analysis of Ethiopia’s agrifood system in the context of a rapidly changing economy. Growth in the agriculture sector remains essential to continued poverty reduction in Ethiopia and will depend on sustained investment in the agrifood system, especially private sector investment. Many of the policies for a successful agricultural and rural development strategy for Ethiopia are relevant for other African countries, as well. Ethiopia’s Agrifood System should be a valuable resource for policymakers, development specialists, and others concerned with economic development in Africa south of the Sahara.

The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) began research activities in Ethiopia in the 1980s to assess the root causes of drought-related food-production shortages and support adoption of appropriate policy responses. IFPRI’s rigorous empirical research contributed to a broader understanding of economic development processes in Ethiopia and built capacity to conduct such research on a national scale. Working with many long-standing partners, IFPRI evaluated strategies for achieving sustainable agricultural growth, investment in agricultural research, the provision of safety nets to strengthen resilience, prioritization of nutrition interventions for women and children, property rights, and management of natural resources, among other goals. Evidence from this and other work informed programs and initiatives to improve food and nutrition security for vulnerable people.

This paper explores the spatial heterogeneity in dairy production in the highland production area around the capital of Ethiopia, Addis Ababa. We look at how urban proximity – defined as the travel time from the farm to the central market of Addis Ababa – affects the production decisions of Ethiopian dairy farmers. We sampled 870 households from the major rural production zones around Addis Ababa, where villages were stratified according to their distance to Addis Ababa. Using an instrumental variable approach, we find evidence of strong spatial heterogeneity in dairy milk productivity in Ethiopia. With each additional hour of travel time, the milk productivity per cow is reduced by almost 1 liter per day, a reduction by 26 percent on average. This spatial heterogeneity in milk productivity reflects a pronounced spatial variation in dairy production decisions (producing liquid milk or processed dairy products), the application of modern inputs, and marketing. When trying to disentangle the mechanisms through which urban proximity affects dairy productivity, we show that the effect of travel time mainly runs through farmers’ inclusion into ‘modern’ value chains and more specifically through their access to commercial milk buyers. This finding holds when we control for prices, indicating that access to commercial value chains are an important determinant of dairy productivity. However, as only a limited number of farmers now have access to such value chains in these settings, measures to make dairy value chains more inclusive to remote farmers can have important economic development benefits for them.

This study of the dairy value chain in the Oromia region of Ethiopia was conducted as part of the AgrInvest-Food Systems Project, a collaboration between the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and the European Centre for Development Policy Management (ECDPM) to promote private investments in African food systems that contribute to local economic, social and environmental sustainability.

The driving forces of income growth, demographic shifts, globalisation and technical change have led to a reorganisation of food systems from farm to plate. The characteristics of supply chains - particularly the role of supermarkets - linking farmers have changed, from consumption and retail to wholesale, processing, procurement and production. This has had a dramatic effect on smallholder farmers, particularly in developing countries. This book presents a comprehensive framework for assessing the impacts of changing agri-food systems on smallholder farmers, recognising the importance of heterogeneity between developing countries as well as within them. The book includes a number of case studies from Asia, Africa, Latin America and Eastern Europe, which are used to illustrate differences in food systems' characteristics and trends. The country case studies explore impacts on the small farm sector across different countries, local contexts and farm types

'There should be a good market for this book. The topic is very timely and a major theme of the new World Development Report 2008. The editors and contributors are world class.' Derek Byerlee, World Bank 'This is a topic of wide interest and high policy importance. The depth of coverage and excellent synthesis should ensure that the book will have a substantial market in high-level undergraduate and graduate courses in agricultural development. It will have a solid readership among development economists and policy makers as well.' Mark Rosegrant, International Food Policy Research Institute The driving forces of income growth, demographic shifts, globalization and technical change have led to a reorganization of food systems from farm to plate. The characteristics of supply chains - particularly the role of supermarkets - linking farmers have changed, from consumption and retail to wholesale, processing, procurement and production. This has had a dramatic effect on smallholder farmers, particularly in developing countries. This book presents a comprehensive framework for assessing the impacts of changing agri-food systems on smallholder farmers, recognizing the importance of heterogeneity between developing countries as well as within them. The book includes a number of case studies from Asia, Africa, Latin America and Eastern Europe, which are used to illustrate differences in food systems' characteristics and trends. The country case studies explore impacts on the small farm sector across different countries, local contexts and farm types. Published with FAO

Remote areas are often characterized by lower welfare outcomes due to economic disadvantages and higher transaction costs for trade. But their worse situation may also be linked to worse public service delivery. Relying on large household surveys in rural Ethiopia, we explore this by assessing the association of two measures of remoteness – (1) the distance of villages and primary service centers to district capitals and (2) the distance of households to service centers (the last mile) – with public service delivery in agriculture and health sectors. In the agriculture sector, we document statistically significant and economically meaningful associations between exposure to agriculture extension and the two measures of remoteness. For health extension, only the last mile matters. These differences between the two sectors could be due to the fact that more remote villages tend to have fewer agriculture extension workers who also put in fewer hours than their peers in more connected areas. This does not apply in the health sector. These findings provide valuable inputs for policymakers aiming to improve inclusiveness in poor rural areas.

Ethiopia has witnessed significant reductions in child mortality, undernutrition, and communicable diseases, but more substantial and faster progress is still needed. The rise in obesity and in noncommunicable diseases, particularly in urban areas, is alarming and requires urgent policy and programmatic attention. Unhealthy diets drive both undernutrition and obesity and are the underlying cause of significant proportion of both communicable and non-communicable diseases. Maintaining the relatively high breastfeeding practices and increasing the diversity of diets will be critical to improving nutrition in Ethiopia. Implementation of effective nutrition messaging that shapes consumer behavior to adopt healthy dietary patterns, while bridging gaps in both the reach and the quality of such messaging is warranted. The health extension program, which is the cornerstone of the transformation of the health sector, may need to be redesigned in a way that improves its reach and the quality of the services it provides and minimizes the risk of burnout of frontline health workers. Interventions focusing on making healthy diets available, affordable, and accessible are urgently needed.

The herd dynamics model (HDM) component of the Linked Economic and Animal Systems (LEAS) model specifically documented here is developed in the context of the Feed the Future Innovation Lab for Livestock Systems financed by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and managed by the University of Florida’s Institute of Food and Animal Sciences. The main objective of this project is to develop a comprehensive analytical approach or systems model capable of assessing (i) how animal herd or flock sizes change over time and in response to on-farm policies; (ii) how alternative national trends and policies affect future development of the livestock system as a whole; (iii) how changes in livestock policies affect people working throughout the livestock system; and (iv) how changes in animal-source food (ASF) production and prices affect the real incomes and consumption patterns of different population groups. The HDM developed provides a highly detailed description of the cattle sector while laying a framework that can be easily adapted to other types of livestock. The model allows one to closely examine the performance of the livestock sector disaggregated by agroecology zones or regions. The HDM is linked both ways with a core economywide model through economic variables such as relative prices of livestock activities, prices and availability of intermediate inputs including feed, and changes in supply of livestock capital in the meat and milk production sectors. Given the complex interplay in the livestock sector such as offtake decisions, death rates, milk and meat yield, and feeding practices (through quality indexed feed demand), the HDM developed under this project is a fully dynamic livestock sector model that provides several avenues for policy analysis on livestock management, the sector’s future trajectory, and its dynamics, given risks and opportunities within the sector and beyond.