Although many theoretical developments have been achieved in recent years, the progress both in understanding and application of risk and reliability analysis in water resources and environmental engineering remains slow. One of the reasons seems to be the lack of training of engineers with phenomena of statistical nature, including optimum cost and benefit decisions under uncertainty. This book presents, in a unified and comprehensive framework, the various aspects of risk and reliability in bothwater quantity and quality problems. The topics covered include uncertainty analysis of water quantity and quality data, stochastic simulation of hydrosystems, decision theory under uncertaintyand case studies. Methods for risk analysis of extremes in hydrology, groundwater clean-up, river and coastal pollution as well as total risk management are presented.

Question: How can I best evaluate the environmental impact and find the risk of water pollution from wastewater disposal? Answer: This book shows you the way! In a unique and comprehensive manner, questions of risk and reliability in water quality are analyzed. And more than that: The author also develops a methodology to evaluate the environmental impact of wastewater disposal on rivers, groundwater and coastal areas. Major topics covered include: fuzzy set theory for engineering risk analysis/ uncertainty analysis of water quantity and quality data/ stochastic and fuzzy simulation of hydrosystems: model selection under uncertainty, water quality control and management in rivers and aquifers, risk in coastal pollution/ decision theory under uncertainty: groundwater pollution, risk management, risk-cost trade-offs In addition, numerous case studies deepen the reader's understanding of the methods and techniques presented. Jacques Ganoulis from the University of Thessaloniki has written extensively on groundwater hydraulics, surface hydrology and coastal water quality.

The purpose of this paper is to present a methodology for estimating space-time stochastic properties of local climatic factors reflecting global climate change. Specifically, daily precipitation amount and daily mean temperature are considered and illustrated with application to the state of Nebraska, U. S. A. Furthermore, a drought index with and without global climate change is examined. The magnitude and consequences of regional response to anticipated climatic changes are uncertain (Houghton et al. , 1990). Typical questions to be answered are: can time series of hydrological events or 10cal climatic variables such as daily temperature be conditioned in scenarios of future climate change and if so, how can this be utilized ? Can extreme historical drought events be reproduced by a stochastic hydroc1imatological model ? Can such a model be used with General Circu1ation Model (GCM) outputs to evaluate the regional/local effects of climate change scenarios? The approach presented in this paper is an extension of the usual analysis of regional hydrometeorological impacts of climate change: we propose to examine time series of GCM produced daily atmospheric circulation patterns (CP), thought to be relatively accurate GCM output to estimate local climatic factors. The paper is organized as follows. First, daily CPs are classified and analyzed statistically, first for historical and then for GCM produced data. Next, the height of the 500 hPa pressure field is introduced as an additional physically relevant variable influencing local climatic factors within each CP type.

This new edition of a classic text has now been extensively updated to include the latest developments in risk analysis and water quality assessment and management. It takes into account the role of ecological water quality in integrated regional and transboundary water resources management, according to the latest UNESCO programmes and the new EU-Water Framework Directive. This practice-oriented textbook is a unique tool for identifying and evaluating local and regional environmental risks from pollution hazards in groundwater, river water and coastal seawaters. The book explains different risk-based probabilistic methodologies and fuzzy logic-based approaches and includes various mathematical models for water quality simulation and theories, such as the decision analysis, the utility theory and the integrated risk-based multi-criteria assessment and management, in order to thoroughly evaluate several case studies from the real world. Questions testing the reader?s understanding are given at the end of each chapter, and a useful appendix provides hints for answering them as well the solutions themselves.

In a world facing a growing water crisis, conflicts regarding water sharing and environmental issues are expected to grow, especially in transboundary river basins, where 40% of the world's population lives. This book represents one of the first attempts to bring together methodologies and analytical tools from socio-economic, international policy, engineering, and water management specialists dealing with transboundary water resources. The book is divided into three parts. Part I introduces state--of-the-art concepts in institutional policy and conflict analysis. Part II presents engineering approaches and models for transboundary water management and conflict resolution. Part III analyzes cases in international river basins and enclosed seas.

Hydraulic, hydrologic and water resources engineers have been concerned for a long time about failure phenomena. One of the major concerns is the definition of a failure event E, of its probability of occurrence PtE), and of the complementary notion of reliability. However, as the stochastic aspects of hydraulics and water resources engineering were developed, words such as "failure," "reliability," and "risk" took on different meanings for different specialists. For example, "risk" is defined in a Bayesian framework as the expected loss resulting from a precisely defined failure event, while according to the practice of stochastic hydraulics it is the probability of occurrence of a failure event. The need to standardize the various concepts and operational definitions generated numerous exciting discussions between the co-editors of this book during 1983-84 when L. Duckstein, under sponsorship of the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation (FRG), was working with E. Plate at the Institute of Hydrology and Water Resources of the University of Karlsruhe. After consulting with the Scientific Affairs Division of NATO, an organizing committee was formed. This comittee - J. Bernier (France), M. Benedini (Italy), S. Sorooshian (U. S. A. ), and co-directors L. Duckstein (U. S. A. ) and E. J. Plate (F. R. G. ) -- brought into being this NATO Advanced Study Institute (ASI). Precisely stated, the purpose of this ASI was to present a tutorial overview of existing work in the broad area of reliability while also pointing out topics for further development.

The concept of “environmental security” has emerged as one basis for understanding international conflicts. This phrase can mean a variety of things. It can signify security issues stemming from environmental concerns or conflicting needs, or it can mean that the environment is treated as a resource for the long term, and the question is what should be done today to preserve the quality of the environment in the future. In the same way that energy security is about ensuring access to energy for the long run, it can also mean that pressing environmental concerns create a situation where different countries and communities are forced to collaboratively design a unified response, even if cooperation is not generally in the logic of their relations. Over the last several years, the authors of this book and their colleagues have tried to demonstrate the power of risk assessment and decision analysis as valuable tools that decision makers should use for a broad range of environmental problems, including environmental security. Risk analysis is almost more a state of mind or a way of looking at problems than it is a kind of algorithm or a set of recipes. It projects a kind of rationality on problems and forces a certain degree of quantitative rigor, as opposed to the all too common tendency of making environmental recommendations based on anecdotal evidence.

Containing papers from the ninth International Conference on Sustainable Water Resources Management, this book presents the work of scientists, practitioners and other experts regarding recent technological and scientific developments associated with the management of surface and sub-surface water resources. Water is essential for sustaining life on our planet, nevertheless its unequal distribution is a source of permanent conflict. It is predicted that population growth and irregular rainfall, due to climate change, may lead to more restricted access to water in certain regions of the world. This problem is made even more severe by human actions that can cause degradation to nature and the environment. These papers cover such topics as: Water management and planning; Water rights and accessibility; Water markets economics and policies; Climate change; Sedimental soil erosion; Irrigation; Water resources in arid regions; Ground water; Urban water management; Hydraulic engineering; Trans-boundary water management; Water, food and energy; Socio-economic aspects; Innovative technologies; Water and the community; Integrated water analysis; Wetlands as water sources.