When and why do suboptimal agricultural policies persist despite technical evidence highlighting alternatives? And what explains episodes of reform after prolonged periods of policy inertia? This paper addresses these questions by applying the Kaleidoscope Model for agricultural and food security policy change to the specific case of agricultural input policy in Zambia. Since 2002, the Farmer Input Support Program (formerly the Fertilizer Support Program) has been a cornerstone of Zambia’s agricultural policy. Over the years, however, many researchers have highlighted weaknesses in the program and proposed other options. Based on semistructured interviews with key stakeholders and intensive process tracing using media, donor, parliamentary, and research reports, this paper examines how the program initially began in 2002 and during subsequent periods of reform in 2009 and 2015. Based on the findings here, periods of reform for input support programs are most likely when there is a confluence of multiple factors. These include the emergence of a window of opportunity in the form of either a focusing event (for example, a food crisis) or an institutional shift (for example, a new president or new ruling party) that coincides with broad stakeholder support for empirically grounded alternatives, available material resources, and sustained commitment from politically important policy makers.

We conduct an ex ante evaluation of the impacts of a potential global recession within the next years and the possible policy responses to support economic activity and improve social indicators in five Central American countries: Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua. We review the economic and social evolution of the past decades in those countries, and we consider a global scenario that includes further deceleration of world growth, lower commodity prices, and a decline in remittances and capital flows to those countries. We simulate those scenarios and related policy issues using recursive dynamic CGE models for the countries considered. The global shock is run under fixed exchange rates and flexible exchange rates (in the case of El Salvador, which has adopted the US dollar as the domestic currency, the simulation of a flexible exchange rate is just indicative). In all cases, a flexible exchange rate delivers better results in terms of GDP per capita, by softening the overall economic impact of the external shocks. Two possible interventions to deal with the recession are simulated: one focuses on policies to strengthen the safety net for the poor; the other applies a more general macroeconomic stimulus (a tax cut plus a modest increase in public investments, financed by un-conventional monetary policy) to try to cushion the shock. For all countries except El Salvador, these two simulations are run with a flexible exchange rate. In the first policy simulation GDP per capita in those countries does not change much, but the poor groups targeted clearly improve their incomes and consumption, helping them the most during the years of the negative shocks. In the second simulation, the macroeconomic stimulus improves the performance of the economies, allowing GDP per capita to be higher than in the case of the shock alone. In summary, facing a potential global downturn as the one simulated here, those countries that have flexible exchange rates and the use of domestic monetary policies can use a mix of adjustment in exchange rates combined with targeted poverty transfers and macroeconomic stimulus to alleviate the shock. El Salvador, which does not have the exchange rate and monetary instruments, will require further support from multilateral and bilateral sources to soften the shock

It is a daunting task to build institution and infrastructure over a short time period in developing countries. But in the absence of sound institutions and adequate infrastructure, it is difficult for economic transformation to take place. An alternative is to facilitate existing industrial clusters or build industrial parks by creating an enabling environment in a limited place. This paper reviews the commonly used strategies to build effective clusters and industrial parks. Clusters and industrial parks are location specific. Because they have an informational advantage, local governments are in a better position than the central government to identify and solve the bottlenecks that affect clusters and industrial parks. As clusters and industrial parks evolve, new bottlenecks emerge, thereby requiring new solutions. This in turns calls for continuous tinkering by local governments. It is important to place local governments and business communities in the driver’s seat of local economic growth so that they can watch out for and adjust to the bumps in the road ahead.

Much empirical research has shown that individuals’ decisions to adopt a new technology are the result of learning–both through personal experimentation through observing the experimentation of others. Yet even casual observation would suggest significant heterogeneity of learning processes, manifesting itself in widely varying patterns of adoption over space and time. This paper explores this heterogeneity in the context of early adoption of hybrid rice in rural India. Using specially designed experiments conducted as part of a primary survey in the field, we identify which of four broad learning heuristics most accurately reflects individuals’ information processing strategies. Linking these learning heuristics with observed use of rice hybrids, we demonstrate that pure Bayesian learning is well suited for the tinkering and marginal adjustments that are required to learn about a technology like hybrid rice, but it is also more cognitively taxing than other learning styles requiring a longer memory and more complex updating processes. Consequently, only about 25 percent of the farmers in our sample can be characterized as pure Bayesian learners. Present-biased learning and relying on first impressions will likely hinder adoption of a technology like hybrid rice, even after controlling for access to credit and a rudimentary proxy for intelligence.

Gold mining is the main economic activity in Madre de Dios, Peru. Despite efforts, the state has not yet managed to identify a formalization process achievable for small operators. In addition, many small-scale miners are driven by poverty and need income to provide for their basic needs. Because participation in small-scale mining is largely driven by poverty, it is likely that, in the longer term, much artisanal mining activity will disappear naturally if, through economic development, more attractive work options become available. This paper reviews the importance of illegal mining in Madre de Dios and the potential for development of the agriculture sector. It also analyzes three different policy scenarios: (1) government spending to rectify the environmental damage in the region caused by illegal mining, (2) development of the agricultural sector in the region, and (3) a final scenario with both environmental restoration and agricultural development. Results show that additional government spending in Madre de Dios does not significantly affect the rest of the country and that investment in agriculture can achieve structural change in the gross domestic product of Madre de Dios. Development of the agricultural sector also slightly increases household incomes in Madre de Dios.

This research was undertaken to better assess the role of mechanization in the future of smallholder farmers in Nepal. It addresses the knowledge gap about whether promoting mechanization that is often complementary to land can effectively support smallholders, particularly in the face of a growing nonfarm sector. Rising rural wages in Nepal have increasingly put pressures on smallholder farmers, who tend to operate labor-intensive farming. Agricultural mechanization through custom hiring of tractor services has recently been considered as an option to mitigate the impact of rising labor costs for smallholders. However, the benefit of agricultural mechanization may still be better captured by exploiting the economies of scale of medium to large farmers rather than smallholders. In the meantime, the Nepal agricultural sector still employs a disproportionate share of workers given its share in the economy, potentially depressing agricultural labor productivity. It is therefore an important policy question whether to (1) continue supporting smallholders through custom-hired tractor services or (2) encourage smallholders to rent their farms out to medium-size or larger farmers, while helping smallholders specialize in the nonfarm sector, where their labor productivity may be higher. Using samples from the Terai zone—one of the agroecological belts in Nepal, largely consisting of lowland plains— from the Nepal Living Standards Survey, we assess whether the benefits of hiring in tractor services are greater among medium to large farmers than among smallholders, and how these benefits may depend on smallholders’ decision to remain in or leave farming. This study also contributes to the impact evaluation literature by showing that jointly assessing the effects of two treatments (whether to adopt custom-hired tractor services and continue farming, or to search for better options and specialize in off-farm activities) can lead to different implications than assessing them separately. Our analyses suggest that the government should continue to promote custom-hired tractor services not only for medium to large farmers but also for smallholders. If, over time, barriers to specializing in nonfarm activities are lowered and more smallholders start leaving farming, mechanization may no longer benefit the remaining smallholders. Support for mechanization can then be focused more on medium to large farmers, while types of support other than mechanization can be devised for the remaining smallholders.

This study was undertaken to assess the utility of remotely sensed net primary productivity (NPP) data to measure agricultural sustainability by applying a new methodology that captures spatial variability and trends in total NPP and in NPP removed at harvest. The sustainable intensification of agriculture is widely promoted as a means for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and transitioning toward a more productive, sustainable, and inclusive agriculture, particularity in fragile environments. Yet critics claim that the 17 SDGs and 169 targets are immeasurable and unmanageable. We propose adoption of satellite-estimated, time-series NPP data to monitor agricultural intensification and sustainability, as it is one indicator potentially valuable across several SDGs. To illustrate, we present a unique monitoring framework and a novel indicator, the agricultural appropriation of net primary productivity (AANPP) and analyze spatial trends in NPP and AANPP across the continent of Africa. AANPP focuses on the proportion of total crop NPP removed at harvest. We estimate AANPP by overlaying remotely sensed satellite imagery with rasterized crop production data at 10-by-10-kilometer spatial resolution; we explore variation in NPP and AANPP in terms of food and ecological security. The spatial distribution of NPP and AANPP illustrates the dominance of cropping systems as spatial drivers of NPP across many regions in West and East Africa, as well as in the fertile river valleys across North Africa and the Sahel, where access to irrigation and other technological inputs are inflating AANPP relative to NPP. A comparison of 2000 and 2005 datasets showed increasing AANPP in African countries south of the Sahara—particularly in Mozambique, Angola, and Zambia—whereas NPP either held stable or decreased considerably. This pattern was especially evident subnationally in Ethiopia. Such trends highlight increasing vulnerability of populations to food and ecological insecurity. When combined with other indicators and time-series data, the significance of NPP and the capacity of spatially explicit datasets have far-reaching implications for monitoring the progress of sustainable development in a post-2015 world.

The literature has placed great emphasis on the advantages of competition on market efficiency while ignoring the downside of competition on health. Using a natural experiment in Taiwan, we show that excessive competition comes at a health cost. In the late 1940s, half a million soldiers retreated to Taiwan from Mainland China after a civil war. They were initially not allowed to get married until the marriage ban was essentially lifted in 1959. As a large number of soldiers flooded the marriage market, men faced much stronger mating competition than before, which in turn increased the likelihood of male depression and mortality.

This book offers an essential, comprehensive, yet accessible reference of contemporary food security discourse and guides readers through the steps required for food security analysis. Food insecurity is a major obstacle to development and achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals. It is a complex issue that cuts across traditional sectors in government and disciplines in academia. Understanding how multiple elements cause and influence food security is essential for policymakers, practitioners and scholars. This book demonstrates how evaluation can integrate the four elements of food security (availability, access, nutrition and resilience) and offers practical tools for policy and programme impact assessment to support evidence-based planning. Aimed at researchers, postgraduates and those undertaking professional development in food studies, agricultural economics, rural development, nutrition and public health, the book is key reading for those seeking to understand evidence-based food security analysis.

Contract farming (CF) is attractive as a possible private-sector-led strategy for improving smallholder farmers’ welfare. Yet many CF schemes suffer from high turnover of participating farmers and struggle to survive. So far, the dynamics of CF participation have remained largely unexplored. We employ duration analysis to examine factors affecting entry into and exit from different maize CF schemes in northern Ghana, focusing specifically on the impact of development projects on CF entry and exit. We find that agricultural development projects reduce the likelihood of scheme entry and increase the likelihood of exit. Our findings confirm concerns that, if interventions are not planned in accordance with relevant private-sector actors, private-sector initiatives can be hindered by competing development projects.