This thesis describes performance measures and ensemble architectures for deterministic and probabilistic forecasts using the application example of wind power forecasting and proposes a novel scheme for the situation-dependent aggregation of forecasting models. For performance measures, error scores for deterministic as well as probabilistic forecasts are compared, and their characteristics are shown in detail. For the evaluation of deterministic forecasts, a categorization by basic error measure and normalization technique is introduced that simplifies the process of choosing an appropriate error measure for certain forecasting tasks. Furthermore, a scheme for the common evaluation of different forms of probabilistic forecasts is proposed. Based on the analysis of the error scores, a novel hierarchical aggregation technique for both deterministic and probabilistic forecasting models is proposed that dynamically weights individual forecasts using multiple weighting factors such as weather situation and lead time dependent weighting. In the experimental evaluation it is shown that the forecasting quality of the proposed technique is able to outperform other state of the art forecasting models and ensembles.

With an annual growth rate of over 35%, wind is the fastest growing energy source in the world today. As a result of intensive research and developmental efforts, the technology of generating energy from wind has significantly changed during the past five years. The book brings together all the latest aspects of wind energy conversion technology - right from the wind resource analysis to grid integration of the wind generated electricity. The chapters are contributed by academic and industrial experts having vast experience in these areas. Each chapter begins with an introduction explaining the current status of the technology and proceeds further to the advanced lever to cater for the needs of readers from different subject backgrounds. Extensive bibliography/references appended to each chapter give further guidance to the interested readers.

This study explains the data preparation processes, plausibility checking of meteorological parameters, correction of met-mast wind speed, and also the determination of the nominal power of a wind farm using met-mast measurements. The wind speed correction of met-mast FINO1 is evaluated from the perspective of power produced by alpha ventus by using uncorrected and corrected measurements from this met-mast. Afterwards this data is used for the determination of nominal power for alpha ventus.

This essential book examines the main problems of wind power integration and guides the reader through a number of the most recent solutions based on current research and operational experience of wind power integration.

Renewable Energy Forecasting: From Models to Applications provides an overview of the state-of-the-art of renewable energy forecasting technology and its applications. After an introduction to the principles of meteorology and renewable energy generation, groups of chapters address forecasting models, very short-term forecasting, forecasting of extremes, and longer term forecasting. The final part of the book focuses on important applications of forecasting for power system management and in energy markets. Due to shrinking fossil fuel reserves and concerns about climate change, renewable energy holds an increasing share of the energy mix. Solar, wind, wave, and hydro energy are dependent on highly variable weather conditions, so their increased penetration will lead to strong fluctuations in the power injected into the electricity grid, which needs to be managed. Reliable, high quality forecasts of renewable power generation are therefore essential for the smooth integration of large amounts of solar, wind, wave, and hydropower into the grid as well as for the profitability and effectiveness of such renewable energy projects. - Offers comprehensive coverage of wind, solar, wave, and hydropower forecasting in one convenient volume - Addresses a topic that is growing in importance, given the increasing penetration of renewable energy in many countries - Reviews state-of-the-science techniques for renewable energy forecasting - Contains chapters on operational applications

Electric Power Systems: Advanced Forecasting Techniques and Optimal Generation Scheduling helps readers develop their skills in modeling, simulating, and optimizing electric power systems. Carefully balancing theory and practice, it presents novel, cutting-edge developments in forecasting and scheduling. The focus is on understanding and solving pivotal problems in the management of electric power generation systems. Methods for Coping with Uncertainty and Risk in Electric Power Generation Outlining real-world problems, the book begins with an overview of electric power generation systems. Since the ability to cope with uncertainty and risk is crucial for power generating companies, the second part of the book examines the latest methods and models for self-scheduling, load forecasting, short-term electricity price forecasting, and wind power forecasting. Toward Optimal Coordination between Hydro, Thermal, and Wind Power Using case studies, the third part of the book investigates how to achieve the most favorable use of available energy sources. Chapters in this section discuss price-based scheduling for generating companies, optimal scheduling of a hydro producer, hydro-thermal coordination, unit commitment with wind generators, and optimal optimization of multigeneration systems. Written in a pedagogical style that will appeal to graduate students, the book also expands on research results that are useful for engineers and researchers. It presents the latest techniques in increasingly important areas of power system operations and planning.

The second edition of the highly acclaimed Wind Power in Power Systems has been thoroughly revised and expanded to reflect the latest challenges associated with increasing wind power penetration levels. Since its first release, practical experiences with high wind power penetration levels have significantly increased. This book presents an overview of the lessons learned in integrating wind power into power systems and provides an outlook of the relevant issues and solutions to allow even higher wind power penetration levels. This includes the development of standard wind turbine simulation models. This extensive update has 23 brand new chapters in cutting-edge areas including offshore wind farms and storage options, performance validation and certification for grid codes, and the provision of reactive power and voltage control from wind power plants. Key features: Offers an international perspective on integrating a high penetration of wind power into the power system, from basic network interconnection to industry deregulation; Outlines the methodology and results of European and North American large-scale grid integration studies; Extensive practical experience from wind power and power system experts and transmission systems operators in Germany, Denmark, Spain, UK, Ireland, USA, China and New Zealand; Presents various wind turbine designs from the electrical perspective and models for their simulation, and discusses industry standards and world-wide grid codes, along with power quality issues; Considers concepts to increase penetration of wind power in power systems, from wind turbine, power plant and power system redesign to smart grid and storage solutions. Carefully edited for a highly coherent structure, this work remains an essential reference for power system engineers, transmission and distribution network operator and planner, wind turbine designers, wind project developers and wind energy consultants dealing with the integration of wind power into the distribution or transmission network. Up-to-date and comprehensive, it is also useful for graduate students, researchers, regulation authorities, and policy makers who work in the area of wind power and need to understand the relevant power system integration issues.

Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts brings together chapters contributed by international subject-matter experts describing the current state of the art in the statistical postprocessing of ensemble forecasts. The book illustrates the use of these methods in several important applications including weather, hydrological and climate forecasts, and renewable energy forecasting. After an introductory section on ensemble forecasts and prediction systems, the second section of the book is devoted to exposition of the methods available for statistical postprocessing of ensemble forecasts: univariate and multivariate ensemble postprocessing are first reviewed by Wilks (Chapters 3), then Schefzik and Möller (Chapter 4), and the more specialized perspective necessary for postprocessing forecasts for extremes is presented by Friederichs, Wahl, and Buschow (Chapter 5). The second section concludes with a discussion of forecast verification methods devised specifically for evaluation of ensemble forecasts (Chapter 6 by Thorarinsdottir and Schuhen). The third section of this book is devoted to applications of ensemble postprocessing. Practical aspects of ensemble postprocessing are first detailed in Chapter 7 (Hamill), including an extended and illustrative case study. Chapters 8 (Hemri), 9 (Pinson and Messner), and 10 (Van Schaeybroeck and Vannitsem) discuss ensemble postprocessing specifically for hydrological applications, postprocessing in support of renewable energy applications, and postprocessing of long-range forecasts from months to decades. Finally, Chapter 11 (Messner) provides a guide to the ensemble-postprocessing software available in the R programming language, which should greatly help readers implement many of the ideas presented in this book. Edited by three experts with strong and complementary expertise in statistical postprocessing of ensemble forecasts, this book assesses the new and rapidly developing field of ensemble forecast postprocessing as an extension of the use of statistical corrections to traditional deterministic forecasts. Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts is an essential resource for researchers, operational practitioners, and students in weather, seasonal, and climate forecasting, as well as users of such forecasts in fields involving renewable energy, conventional energy, hydrology, environmental engineering, and agriculture. - Consolidates, for the first time, the methodologies and applications of ensemble forecasts in one succinct place - Provides real-world examples of methods used to formulate forecasts - Presents the tools needed to make the best use of multiple model forecasts in a timely and efficient manner

A guide to a multi-disciplinary approach that includes perspectives from noted experts in the energy and utilities fields Advances in Energy Systems offers a stellar collection of articles selected from the acclaimed journal Wiley Interdisciplinary Review: Energy and Environment. The journalcovers all aspects of energy policy, science and technology, environmental and climate change. The book covers a wide range of relevant issues related to the systemic changes for large-scale integration of renewable energy as part of the on-going energy transition. The book addresses smart energy systems technologies, flexibility measures, recent changes in the marketplace and current policies. With contributions from a list of internationally renowned experts, the book deals with the hot topic of systems integration for future energy systems and energy transition. This important resource: Contains contributions from noted experts in the field Covers a broad range of topics on the topic of renewable energy Explores the technical impacts of high shares of wind and solar power Offers a review of international smart-grid policies Includes information on wireless power transmission Presents an authoritative view of micro-grids Contains a wealth of other relevant topics Written forenergy planners, energy market professionals and technology developers, Advances in Energy Systems is an essential guide with contributions from an international panel of experts that addresses the most recent smart energy technologies.

This book outlines the challenges that increasing amounts of renewable and distributed energy represent when integrated into established electricity grid infrastructures, offering a range of potential solutions that will support engineers, grid operators, system planners, utilities, and policymakers alike in their efforts to realize the vision of moving toward greener, more secure energy portfolios. Covering all major renewable sources, from wind and solar, to waste energy and hydropower, the authors highlight case studies of successful integration scenarios to demonstrate pathways toward overcoming the complexities created by variable and distributed generation.