Climate change poses unprecedented challenges to the world’s food systems. Rising temperatures, changing rainfall patterns, and more frequent extreme weather events threaten agricultural production and the biodiversity and ecosystem services that underpin agriculture. Within food systems, climate change affects processing, storage, transport, and retailing of food and affects our food environments. These growing climate risks impact food security, nutrition, and human health, as well as equity and livelihoods, with poor food producers and consumers hit hardest. They make food systems a riskier source of income and reduce the availability of food — worsening poverty and inequity, disrupting livelihoods, and contributing to hunger and malnutrition. At the same time, food systems are failing to provide healthy diets for all, and are generating one-third of human-caused greenhouse gases. Solutions must address this complex nexus of problems. Climate change adaptation and resilience-building efforts for food systems must be accelerated to reverse growing malnutrition, ensure that all people can access healthy diets, and provide sustainable livelihoods. At the same time, efforts to transform food systems work to reduce their environmental footprint. Farmers and small businesses along food value chains in low- and middle-income countries will have to adapt their practices to a climate marked by extreme weather events and changing seasonal patterns in order to meet growing and changing food demand, while also contributing to mitigation. Support for this critical transformation requires not only the development, dissemination, and adoption of appropriate low-emissions, climate-smart technologies and practices, but also a focus on the policies, institutions, governance, and behavior change that can promote sustainable, inclusive food systems.

Forthcoming

As the two case studies suggest, STI impact is highly context-specific, and must often adapt to a changing decision-making milieu. Partner engagement is a critical piece in moving policy research to outcomes, as is reflected in IFPRI’s most recent strategy and increased deployment of personnel to country programs. However, local deployment for impact comes at the expense of critical mass at headquarters and the ability to engage in emerging trends in scientific discovery. And, as the review highlights, such critical mass can only be deployed over a limited number of research themes. As the IFPRI STI team explores the next strategic focus for its research, it faces the difficult question of how to balance the increasing emphasis on accountability, and therefore impact, with the ability of IFPRI to define new research areas and generate IPGs in this critical policy area.

Consortium for Scaling-up Climate Smart Agriculture in South Asia (C-SUCSeS) is a four-year joint initiative between South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) Agriculture Center (SAC), International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD), and the SAARC Development Fund (SDF). The program aims to foster partnership and cooperation between SAARC, National Agricultural Research and Extension Systems (NARES), IFPRI, and SAARC governments on the Climate-Smart Agriculture (CSA) agenda. The project also intends to support agricultural researchers’ to generate and facilitate delivery of technological solutions to smallholder and women farmers, with a specific priority on the intensification and resilience of smallholder agriculture, contributing, inter alia, to increasing water management efficiency, promote innovative, pro-poor approaches and technologies with demonstrated scaling-up potential, strengthen partners’ institutional and policy capacities, enhance policy engagement, and generate and share knowledge.

This analysis is composed of two parts. The evolving structure of Kenya’s agrifood system (AFS) and its contribution to national development is assessed using a series of Social Accounting Matrixes (SAMs) for Kenya for the period 2009–2019. Economic performance is also assessed at subsector level to better understand the contributions of different agrifood value chains to Kenya’s development and economic transformation in recent years. The analysis reveals that the effects of AFS transformation stretches well beyond primary agriculture, creating jobs and income opportunities throughout the economy. In fact, the off-farm components of the AFS have grown more rapidly than primary agriculture, although differences in market structure and internationally tradable status contributed to varied patterns of growth across value chains. The analysis further reveals that it is the domestic market, not exports, that has driven the recent growth in Kenya’s AFS. Rapid urbanization and increased income generating opportunities in the rural nonfarm sector are causing dietary patterns to shift, which will continue to shape the transformation of the AFS in Kenya. A forward-looking analysis using IFPRI’s Rural Investment and Policy Analysis (RIAPA) model – an economywide modeling framework – assesses the potential impacts of future value chain growth on development outcome indicators. The findings reveal that value chains differ considerably in their effectiveness in achieving various development outcomes. Promoting only one value chain may also result in trade-offs across these development goals. For example, the coffee and tea value chains are highly effective at raising off-farm employment in the AFS, but they have weak impacts on diet quality. Likewise, cattle and dairy have strong off-farm GDP effects within the AFS, but are relatively ineffective at reducing poverty. By promoting and investing in several value chains simultaneously, policymakers can leverage synergies and mitigate trade-offs across development outcomes associated with specific value chains. The RIAPA analysis here suggests that joint promotion of the pulses and oilseeds, fruits and nuts, and cattle and dairy value chains will be most effective at impacting the full spectrum of development outcomes tracked in the model, including poverty, growth, jobs, and diets. However, the final value chain selection may change depending on the importance policymakers attach to the respective development outcomes.

The new Kenyan government faces a complex domestic and global environment, and it is widely expected to address key food and agricultural challenges with a new set of policies and programs. This policy brief presents key recommendations from a forthcoming book, Food Systems Transformation in Kenya: Lessons from the Past and Policy Options for the Future, which provides research-based “food for thought and action” to support the Kenyan government’s efforts to improve food security.