Estonia’s economy continues to perform well, and growing incomes support well-being. However, the expansion has peaked, and growth is set to soften due to weak international demand. Prudent fiscal policy has resulted in low debt, but spending pressures related to meeting infrastructure needs and ageing are mounting. Old age poverty is high and the proposal to allow early withdrawal of pension funds threatens macroeconomic stability and pension adequacy. The gender wage gap is among the highest in the OECD, and inequalities in income and health are considerable, reflecting gaps in the social safety net. The oil-shale sector is highly energy-intensive and is the main culprit behind Estonia’s high greenhouse gas emissions, but reducing dependence on the sector is challenging, as it is an important employer and meets 70% of Estonia’s energy needs.

Since its independence, Estonia has made tremendous progress towards greater economic prosperity. Estonia enjoys solid institutions, political stability, a strong and credible fiscal policy, as well as a robust financial sector. Estonia is also a frontrunner in digital governance and innovation. Stable and secure digital services are in fact one of the factors that have allowed Estonia to cushion better than others the sanitary and economic shock from the pandemic.

Estonian living standards have doubled since 2000 and income convergence was steady prior to the pandemic, although per capita GDP and productivity remain below the OECD averages. The economy experienced a severe downturn due to disruptions in trade, weaker export demand, high inflation and tight monetary conditions. With improvements in external demand, growth should start to recover this year.

The German economy entered a deep recession in 2020 due to the coronavirus pandemic. A strong government response has reinforced health system capacity while protecting jobs and firms. The response to the crisis has included increases in investment to meet structural challenges from the energy transition and digital transformation.

Structural and institutional strengths, a strong crisis response and a high level of digitalisation have helped the Netherlands to weather the COVID-19 crisis with so far limited economic damage compared to many OECD countries. Several long-standing challenges are set to affect the strength of the recovery and its long-term sustainability.

Costa Rica’s social and economic progress has been remarkable. Over the last 30 years, growth has been steady and GDP per capita has tripled. A strong commitment towards trade openness has been key to attract foreign direct investment and move Costa Rica up in the global value chain. Costa Rica faces substantial challenges to retain achieved successes and to continue converging towards higher living standards. The fiscal situation remains a critical vulnerability.

COVID-19 has hit the Polish society and its economy hard, even if to a lesser extent than other European countries. Employment has declined and public debt has increased abruptly, which will make it more challenging to solve long-term issues, such as the low productivity of some workers, weak environmental outcomes and rising ageing costs.

Costa Rica recovered well from the pandemic-induced recession. Sustained and resilient export performance continues to support growth, while consumption is hindered by high inflation and unemployment. The fiscal situation improved but remains challenging, requiring sustained efforts to contain spending and boost public sector efficiency for several years.

The New Zealand economy recovered quickly from the COVID-19 shock thanks to effective virus containment, measures to protect jobs and incomes and highly expansionary macroeconomic policies but is now overheating and house prices have soared. The Reserve Bank has begun to tighten monetary and macroprudential policies with a view to achieving its price and financial stability objectives.

Lithuania’s economy exited the COVID-19-crisis successfully and was growing fast until early 2022, buoyed by rising exports and rapid integration into global value chains. However, with Russia’s aggression of Ukraine continuing and its consequences spreading, the outlook has darkened.