These volumes contain the papers presented at the 4th International Conference on Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management (PSAM 4), held in New York City in September 98. The conference provided a forum for the presentation of innovative methods and applications of risk-based approaches to improve the design and operation of technological systems and processes from the economic and safety points of view. Papers reflect progress made on methods and applications in such areas as modeling and analysis of complex systems, human and organizational performance assessment, software reliability, data collection and analysis, expert judgement modeling and use, identification and assessment of various types of uncertainty, risk-informed regulatory and operational decision making, and public perception of risk. A diverse range of disciplines are represented including aerospace, nuclear, fossil fuels, chemical systems, marine technology, transportation, information technology, medical systems, environment, and defense.

A collection of papers presented at the PSAM 7 – ESREL ’04 conference in June 2004, reflecting a wide variety of disciplines, such as principles and theory of reliability and risk analysis, systems modelling and simulation, consequence assessment, human and organisational factors, structural reliability methods, software reliability and safety, insights and lessons from risk studies and management/decision making. This volume covers both well-established practices and open issues in these fields, identifying areas where maturity has been reached and those where more development is needed.

IE-2 > FV 5E-3 > FV IE-3 > FV IE-4 > FV Trun- Total IST and IST Components Total IST FV> IE-2 Type >5E-3 > IE-3 > IE-4 >0 cated IPE Components Not Modeled in PRA Components 11 3 6 5 27 73 100 AOV 2 CV 4 21 24 16 12 77 94 171 4 6 10 HOV 4 34 158 MOV 2 5 35 33 24 25 124 43 43 MV 2 PORV 1 1 2 PUMP 12 5 6 1 3 27 9 36 54 54 SOV SRV 20 3 23 23 Total 39 17 73 61 49 45 284 313 597 ------- --- Table 2. Levell IPEEE Basic Event Importance - Risk Achievement Worth Total IST and (PE IST Components Not Total IST 2>RAW>0 Truncated Type RAW>2 Components Modeled in PRA Components 100 AOV 13 9 5 27 73 CV 52 16 9 77 94 171 4 4 6 10 HOV MOV 60 54 10 124 34 158 43 43 MV PORV 2 2 2 PUMP 24 3 27 9 36 SOV 54 54 SRV 23 23 23 597 Total 155 102 27 284 313 ~~--- -. . j S 702 and 2 includes the following IST component types: pumps, air-operated valves (AOV), check valves (CV), hydraulically-operated valves (HOV), motor-operated valves (MOV), manual valves (MV), pressurizer power-operated relief valves (PORV), solenoid operated valves (SOV), and safety reliefvalves (SRV).

Reliability and Probabilistic Safety Assessment in Multi-Unit Nuclear Power Plants presents the risk contributions from single and multi-unit Nuclear Power Plants to help aggregate the risks that may arise due to applicable hazards and operating states. The book combines the key features of multi-unit risk assessment in one resource, reviewing the practices adopted in various countries around the globe to exemplify the dependencies between units on a site. These dependencies include multi-unit interactions, environmental stresses, the sharing of systems, and the sharing of human resource in a control room, factors which can all introduce an increase potential for heightened accident conditions. This book helps readers systematically identify events and evaluate techniques of possible accident outcomes within multi-units. It serves as a ready reference for PSA analysts in identifying a suitable site and the sharing of resources, while carrying out multi-unit risk assessments to ensure the safety of the public and the environment. It will also be valuable for nuclear researchers, designers and regulators of nuclear power plants, nuclear regulatory agencies, PSA engineers and practicing safety professionals. - Provides a framework for nuclear and PSA researchers and professionals on the design and operation of multi-unit risk assessments - Reviews practices adopted in various regions around the globe to analyze dependencies between units - Includes modeling techniques of inter-connections and shared resources, as well as risk aggregation

Probabilistic safety assessment methods are used to calculate nuclear power plant durability and resource lifetime. Successful calculation of the reliability and ageing of components is critical for forecasting safety and directing preventative maintenance, and Probabilistic safety assessment for optimum nuclear power plant life management provides a comprehensive review of the theory and application of these methods.Part one reviews probabilistic methods for predicting the reliability of equipment. Following an introduction to key terminology, concepts and definitions, formal-statistical and various physico–statistical approaches are discussed. Approaches based on the use of defect-free models are considered, along with those using binomial distribution and models based on the residual defectiveness of structural materials. The practical applications of probabilistic methods for strength reliability are subsequently explored in part two. Probabilistic methods for increasing the reliability and safety of nuclear power plant components are investigated, as are the use of such methods for optimising non-destructive tests, hydraulic tests, technical certification and planned-preventative maintenance. Finally, the book concludes with information on the use of probabilistic methods in ensuring leak tightness of nuclear power plant steam generator heat exchanger pipes.With its distinguished authors, Probabilistic safety assessment for optimum nuclear power plant life management is a valuable reference for all nuclear plant designers, operators, nuclear safety engineers and managers, as well as academics and researchers in this field. - Discusses the theory and application of probabilistic safety assessment methods used to calculate nuclear power plant (NPP) durability and lifetime - Reviews probabilistic methods in their application to NPP components and ageing pipelines for the forecasting of NPP resource lifetime and safety - Addresses the key areas of probabilistic safety analysis, optimization of the operations through in-service inspection (ISI) utilising non-destructive testing, and maintenance, service and repair approaches

Exciting new developments in risk assessment and management Risk assessment and management is fundamentally founded on the knowledge available on the system or process under consideration. While this may be self-evident to the laymen, thought leaders within the risk community have come to recognize and emphasize the need to explicitly incorporate knowledge (K) in a systematic, rigorous, and transparent framework for describing and modeling risk. Featuring contributions by an international team of researchers and respected practitioners in the field, this book explores the latest developments in the ongoing effort to use risk assessment as a means for characterizing knowledge and/or lack of knowledge about a system or process of interest. By offering a fresh perspective on risk assessment and management, the book represents a significant contribution to the development of a sturdier foundation for the practice of risk assessment and for risk-informed decision making. How should K be described and evaluated in risk assessment? How can it be reflected and taken into account in formulating risk management strategies? With the help of numerous case studies and real-world examples, this book answers these and other critical questions at the heart of modern risk assessment, while identifying many practical challenges associated with this explicit framework. This book, written by international scholars and leaders in the field, and edited to make coverage both conceptually advanced and highly accessible: Offers a systematic, rigorous and transparent perspective and framework on risk assessment and management, explicitly strengthening the links between knowledge and risk Clearly and concisely introduces the key risk concepts at the foundation of risk assessment and management Features numerous cases and real-world examples, many of which focused on various engineering applications across an array of industries Knowledge of Risk Assessment and Management is a must-read for risk assessment and management professionals, as well as graduate students, researchers and educators in the field. It is also of interest to policy makers and business people who are eager to gain a better understanding of the foundations and boundaries of risk assessment, and how its outcomes should be used for decision-making.

The accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant underlined the need to assess the nuclear safety of multi-unit sites considering the accident sequences involving more than one reactor units on site. The objective of this Safety Report is to provide a methodology for the development of a Multi-unit Probabilistic Safety Assessment (MUPSA). It provides practical examples and an overview of the actual state of practice in this area. The publication provides a detailed description of Level 1 MUPSA methodology, the principles of development of Level 2 MUPSA models and the path forward for multi-unit consequence analysis (Level 3 MUPSA). In addition, it summarizes the experience available in Member States in the area of MUPSA. The scope of this Safety Report includes consideration of various hazards and plant operational states normally considered in PSA development in the multi-unit context.

Contains references to documents in the NASA Scientific and Technical (STI) Database.

These two volumes contain the papers presented at the 6th International Conference on Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management (PSAM 6). probabilistic risk and safety assessment and management methods and techniques applied to complex systems. These proceedings provide a collection of technical summaries on the application of risk and safety assessment management in 18 different technical disciplines. terrorism; risk assessment for aerospace systems; environmental issues in developing countries; risk assessment in transportation systems; sustainable development; and risk assessment in science and technology initiatives. It brought together world-recognized experts to discuss these topics along with emerging areas of direct relevance to practitioners of risk and safety assessment.