Economic prospects for the countries of the Middle East and North Africa are assessed in light of the changing world economy, increasing integration of trade and financial markets, greater needs for educated labour, and growing concerns about poverty and environmental degradation. Cross-country papers on thematic topics by international scholars are presented. The need for major economic reforms is emphasized if the region is to use greater integration in the world economy as the basis for generating growth and jobs and reducing poverty.

"The impact of the global financial and economic crisis on the Middle East and North Africa region was relatively mild. Lack of integration and a large public sector helped insulate the region to some extent, but now these and other factors are slowing down the speed of its economic recovery. The report examines the major factors threatening the recovery and those that obstruct long-term growth, especially non-oil export growth, which in net terms contributed little to regional growth during the past decade, with non-oil exports remaining below potential in many countries in the region. The report emphasizes several major areas in need of policy makers\2019 attention, including restrictive trade policies, particularly those affecting trade in services; governance issues linked to uneven application of rules and regulations; inefficient and inflexible labor markets and scarcity of skills, innovation and technological capabilities."--page xi.

The post-revolutionary economies of MENA - Egypt, Tunisia, Libya and Yemen - have been recovering after a period of growth decelerations in 2011. In Egypt and Tunisia, the growth dips of 2011 were less dramatic than the declines observed during previous transitions. The recovery has been relatively quick but the transition process is far from complete and uncertainty about the political and reform process remains a binding constraint to private investment. Consequently, post-transition growth is below potential and is lower than growth prior to the Arab Spring, with negative consequences for employment and poverty. Events in the post-revolution economies have affected other countries in MENA. Macroeconomic fundamentals weakened in most developing MENA countries in 2011-12 as growth slowed and governments responded to social pressures with expansionary fiscal policies. The regional growth outlook for 2013 reflects weaker expected global economic activity, especially in the EU, and moderating oil prices. Regional economic growth is expected to decelerate to 3.5% in 2013 from 5.5% in 2012. Prolonged political and policy uncertainty and social unrest are serious downside risks to the outlook.

The post-revolutionary economies of MENA - Egypt, Tunisia, Libya and Yemen - have been recovering after a period of growth decelerations in 2011. In Egypt and Tunisia, the growth dips of 2011 were less dramatic than the declines observed during previous transitions. The recovery has been relatively quick but the transition process is far from complete and uncertainty about the political and reform process remains a binding constraint to private investment. Consequently, post-transition growth is below potential and is lower than growth prior to the Arab Spring, with negative consequences for employment and poverty. Events in the post-revolution economies have affected other countries in MENA. Macroeconomic fundamentals weakened in most developing MENA countries in 2011-12 as growth slowed and governments responded to social pressures with expansionary fiscal policies. The regional growth outlook for 2013 reflects weaker expected global economic activity, especially in the EU, and moderating oil prices. Regional economic growth is expected to decelerate to 3.5% in 2013 from 5.5% in 2012. Prolonged political and policy uncertainty and social unrest are serious downside risks to the outlook.

The report highlights the important links between good governance on a level legal and regulatory playing field, and the ability of investment to stimulate growth. Investment in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region has been strong over the last two decades in comparison with Latin America and Eastern Europe. However, in the oil exporting countries, it has been primarily supported by large and expanding public investments. Oil importers, in contrast, have shown more strength in private investment, which has increased in recent years. A concern with reliance on public investment is that in economies with weak governance there is no evidence that public investment stimulates growth. In contrast, in countries with an adequate level of protection of property rights and legal institutions, public investment is strongly linked to growth. The report also makes a strong case for private investment in services and manufacturing as engines of job creation and income growth in the region.

Historic transitions in the Arab Spring countries are coming under increasing strain frommacroeconomic pressures and unmet social demands. Domestic uncertainty over the countries' future course, compounded by the global slowdown and rising oil prices, took a toll on growth during 2011. The outlook for 2012 and 2013 is equally challenging. The protracted political transition, lower global growth, and euro zone weakness are likely to result in a slow and drawn-out economic recovery, with unemployment at best stabilizing at high levels. Maintaining macroeconomic stability in this environment will be challenging, not least since policy buffers were reduced during 2011. Indeed, gross external and fiscal financing needs of MENA oilimporters are projected at about $93 and $103 billion, respectively, in 2012-13. With capital markets expected to provide only a small part of these funds, official financial support will be essential to allow countries to continue on their path toward economic transformation. But at the same time, countries need to make tangible progress on that path. This requires bold reform and modernization agendas that command broad consensus and are embedded in a sustainable medium-term macroeconomic policy framework to build confidence, anchor expectations, and pave the way for sustained and inclusive growth.

In the rapid world-wide spread of privatization, progress in the Middle East and North Africa region has been markedly slow. This volume argues that a high level of overstaffing in public enterprises and the inability of economies to create jobs fast enough is mainly responsible for this. An in-depth study of the facts and a well-supported conclusion makes this an impressive collection of work on a very pertinent subject.

"While very diverse in many respects, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries nevertheless also share some common characteristics, including a number of important shared challenges for policymakers."The Middle East and North Africa region has great potential for economic growth and prosperity in the 21st century. Yet, this potential will not be realized unless governments and private sector leaders in the region forge partnerships for development. An indispensable resource for all those working within the international development community, especially within the Middle East and North Africa region, Trade Policy Developments in the Middle East and North Africa offers policy and institutional alternatives to help both parties achieve that goal.This volume describes and analyzes recent trade policy developments in the Middle East and North Africa. Contributors—almost all economists from the region—review recent trends in trade performance, assess current trade and investment regimes, and discuss some of the emerging microeconomic policy challenges that confront governments and firms seeking to export and trade. Topics addressed include the need and scope for using regional integration and economic free zones as a tool of development, mobilization of non-trade tax bases, efficient enforcement of product standards to ensure health and safety of citizens, and implementation of modern information technologies to facilitate customs clearance.This book is the second in a series from the Mediterranean Development Forum, a partnership of 10 Middle East and North Africa Region think tanks and the World Bank Institute. This volume will be of interest to development specialists, policymakers, and investors.

An authoritative analysis of economic performance in Middle Eastern and North African countries are presented by scholars in the region. The papers focus on the implications of changes in the world economy, in the role of the private sector, and in the need for human resource development. Country studies are presented for Egypt, the economies of the Gulf Cooperation Council, Iran, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, Palestine, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia, and Turkey.

Research for Development in the Middle East and North Africa