Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, government-sponsored enterprises that played a prominent role in the financial crisis of 2008, and the federal government have come to a crossroads. The government must make key decisions about their structure, and indeed, their very existence. The government has played an important role in the American housing market since the early 1930s, when the Great Depression ushered in housing programs to promote a stable society. The government's role expanded further during the recent housing and financial crisis—Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac now dominate the American housing market, backing more than 62 percent of new mortgages and holding more than $5 trillion in accumulated mortgage risk. In The Future of Housing Finance Martin Baily and his associates discuss the issues and options that policymakers face as they reassess the government's role in the U.S. residential mortgage market. While presenting diverse analytical perspectives, including a contribution from former chairman of the Federal Reserve Alan Greenspan, all contributors agree that the government's support for mortgage financing in the recent past was too broad and deep but some role is necessary to maintain the stability of the housing finance market. The Obama administration has recommended reducing the role of Fannie and Freddie while replacing them with a private market approach, but continuing federal support for worthy borrowers. But what will Congress agree to? And how fast will it move on any initiative? Specific topics include: • Introduction of a new system to reduce incentives that encourage excessive risk taking. • Gradual withdrawal of Fannie and Freddie from the housing finance system. • New approaches to regulating mortgage securitization, with financial stability as a primary goal. • Use of government-backed guarantees through institutional structures designed to limit moral hazard.

This book's title betrays at once that it belongs in the forecast literature. Peering into the future is a notoriously treacherous venture. Nevertheless, it has become a prac tice endemic to the business and government worlds as well as to academia, especially economics. We like to be lieve that the enormous growth of forecasting in the face of some disappointments reflects real needs of decision makers (as well as the general public's well-warranted curiosity about the future). Fashion alone could hardly explain the sustained increase in the market for forecast services during the past few decades. Some professionals insist on fine distinctions be tween the forecast, the projection, the prediction-and the prophecy. The differences are more semantic than real, as the mandatory resort to Webster confirms. The entry "forecast" includes references to prediction and prophecy without differentiation, while "projection" is defined, among other things, as prediction or "advance estimate." We use mainly the term projections because v PREFACE vi much of our statistical research is based on forward es timates of population and households by the U.S. Bu reau of the Census which the bureau itself, the greatest fountain of data in the world, records as projections.

This book provides evidence on how housing finance markets developed across Europe. The objective of the text is to bring together up to date material from across Europe which will help to clarify (i) how national housing finance markets have dealt with the challenges of deregulation and privatisation since the 1980s,(ii) how the financial crisis has impacted on the structure of the industry and the range of financial instruments available, (iii) how governments and the EU have responded to increasing risks and higher indebtedness in most West European countries and the need to grow new finance markets in Eastern Europe, and (iv) how changing housing finance markets impact on the capacity to provide adequate affordable housing into the future.