This book's title betrays at once that it belongs in the forecast literature. Peering into the future is a notoriously treacherous venture. Nevertheless, it has become a prac tice endemic to the business and government worlds as well as to academia, especially economics. We like to be lieve that the enormous growth of forecasting in the face of some disappointments reflects real needs of decision makers (as well as the general public's well-warranted curiosity about the future). Fashion alone could hardly explain the sustained increase in the market for forecast services during the past few decades. Some professionals insist on fine distinctions be tween the forecast, the projection, the prediction-and the prophecy. The differences are more semantic than real, as the mandatory resort to Webster confirms. The entry "forecast" includes references to prediction and prophecy without differentiation, while "projection" is defined, among other things, as prediction or "advance estimate." We use mainly the term projections because v PREFACE vi much of our statistical research is based on forward es timates of population and households by the U.S. Bu reau of the Census which the bureau itself, the greatest fountain of data in the world, records as projections.

Explains the financial history leading to the mortgage meltdown and assesses today's housing finance systems in the United States and abroad.

During the recession in the years 2008-2009, the most severe for mature economies in the post-war period, housing markets were often mentioned as having a special responsibility. The objective of this book is to shed light on the cyclical behaviour of the housing markets, its fundamental determinants in terms of supply and demand characteristics, and its relationship with the overall business cycle. The co-movements of house prices across countries are also considered, as well as the channel of transmission of house price changes to the rest of the economy. Particular attention is paid to the effects on private consumption, through possible wealth effects. The book is a compilation of original papers produced by economists and researchers from the four main national central banks in the euro area, also with the participation of leading academics.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, government-sponsored enterprises that played a prominent role in the financial crisis of 2008, and the federal government have come to a crossroads. The government must make key decisions about their structure, and indeed, their very existence. The government has played an important role in the American housing market since the early 1930s, when the Great Depression ushered in housing programs to promote a stable society. The government's role expanded further during the recent housing and financial crisis—Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac now dominate the American housing market, backing more than 62 percent of new mortgages and holding more than $5 trillion in accumulated mortgage risk. In The Future of Housing Finance Martin Baily and his associates discuss the issues and options that policymakers face as they reassess the government's role in the U.S. residential mortgage market. While presenting diverse analytical perspectives, including a contribution from former chairman of the Federal Reserve Alan Greenspan, all contributors agree that the government's support for mortgage financing in the recent past was too broad and deep but some role is necessary to maintain the stability of the housing finance market. The Obama administration has recommended reducing the role of Fannie and Freddie while replacing them with a private market approach, but continuing federal support for worthy borrowers. But what will Congress agree to? And how fast will it move on any initiative? Specific topics include: • Introduction of a new system to reduce incentives that encourage excessive risk taking. • Gradual withdrawal of Fannie and Freddie from the housing finance system. • New approaches to regulating mortgage securitization, with financial stability as a primary goal. • Use of government-backed guarantees through institutional structures designed to limit moral hazard.

A global look at the reasons behind the recent economic collapse, and the responses to it The speculative bubble in the housing market began to burst in the United States in 2007, and has been followed by ruptures in virtually every asset market in almost every country in the world. Each country proposed a range of policy initiatives to deal with its crisis. Policies that focused upon stabilizing the housing market formed the cornerstone of many of these proposals. This internationally focused book evaluates the genesis of the housing market bubble, the global viral contagion of the crisis, and the policy initiatives undertaken in some of the major economies of the world to counteract its disastrous affects. Unlike other books on the global crisis, this guide deals with the housing sector in addition to the financial sector of individual economies. Countries in many parts of the world were players in either the financial bubble or the housing bubble, or both, but the degree of impact, outcome, and responses varied widely. This is an appropriate time to pull together the lessons from these various experiences. Reveals the housing crisis in the United States as the core of the meltdown Describes the evolution of housing markets and policies in the run-up to the crisis, their impacts, and the responses in European and Asian countries Compares experiences and linkages across countries and points to policy implications and research lessons drawn from these experiences Filled with the insights of well-known contributors with strong contacts in practice and academia, this timely guide discusses the history and evolution of the recent crisis as local to each contributor's part of the world, and examines its distinctive and common features with that of the U.S., the trajectory of its evolution, and the similarities and differences in policy response.

Although Japan and the United States are the world's leading economies, there are significant differences in the ways their wealth is translated into living standards. A careful comparison of housing markets illustrates not only how living standards in the two countries differ, but also reveals much about saving patterns and how they affect wealth accumulation. In this volume, ten essays discuss the evolution of housing prices, housing markets and personal savings, housing finance, commuting, and the impact of public policy on housing markets. The studies reveal surprising differences in housing investment in the two countries. For example, because down payments in Japan are much higher than in the United States, Japanese tend to delay home purchases relative to their American counterparts. In the United States, the advent of home equity credit may have reduced private saving overall. This book is the first comparison of housing markets in Japan and the United States, and its findings illuminate the effects of housing markets on productivity growth, business investment, and trade.

Available online: https://pub.norden.org/nord2021-022/ This issue of Nordic Economic Policy Review is devoted to Nordic housing markets and housing policies. Nordic housing markets face more or less the same problems and challenges, but the way policies and regulations deal with them differs in many respects. A comparison of policies, regulations and results across countries yields valuable lessons for policymakers. The work has been led and edited by Professor emeritus Harry Flam and Professor emeritus Peter Englund.