What are the key factors that will shape the post-Soviet military system? Leading experts assess the geostrategic context in which leaders must operate, the nature of future war, foundations of military power, dilemmas confronting a multinational military force, problems in managing a nuclear arsenal, civil-military relations, economic priorities and problems, and ethnic questions. This current evaluation of how war and the Soviet Union are being transformed is an invaluable study for students and experts in military studies, political science, and the social sciences generally. In this collection of important perspectives, Soviet military elites and influential civilian policymakers discussed what previous and present developments will require in the future. This collaborative effort examines what Moscow sees as important requirements. The study analyzes Soviet forecasting methodologies, naval developments, views about theater warfare in Europe, developments in C3I, the role of space, the Soviet military economy, mobilization regimes, Soviet views on American military thought, perspectives on the initial period of warfare and changes in operational arts. Chapter endnotes and reference lists point to major sources of Soviet scholarship.

The very title of this monograph is quite ambiguous. On the one hand, only 3 years are left until the 21st century. This is too short a time to forecast or propose any serious change in a huge and complicated organization like the armed forces of a great power. On the other hand, each century lasts 100 years, and without a crystal ball it is impossible to predict the evolution of armed forces over such a long period, least of all at a time of dynamic and revolutionary shifts in the world's technologies, economics, the geopolitical scene, and the relative military balance between nations. Hence, in addressing the prospects for Russia's armed forces, it seems realistic to discuss the future some 10-15 years ahead, to 2010. This is an appropriate timeframe for the fulfillment of large cycles of economic and military development in Russia and in other major states. It allows consideration of the possible realignment of principal international coalitions, and it provides time to implement major weapons programs. Accordingly, with a timeframe of 10-15 years, future trends are sufficiently imbedded in present reality to be discussed without entering the world of science fiction. Present policy choices may tangibly affect developments in 10-15 years. Besides, as presently being considered, the Russian military reform initiative is planned to proceed through its first two stages through the year 2005. What happens in that process will define how the Russian military proceeds from 2005 through 2010, the third stage of the reform initiative. Within this temporal framework, the following monograph discusses Russia's military alternatives appropriate to its new security requirements, projected economic conditions, technological capabilities, and possible changes in the international situation which might affect Russia and its relationship with other major powers. Even at that, many issues relevant to the subject, like industrial and financial projections, problems of defense conversion, possible advances in military technology, demographic considerations, the draft and mobilization, have to be left out or discussed only superficially. All of these issues are part of the comprehensive notion of military reform; something larger than the narrow notion of reforming the armed forces. In this monograph, based strictly on unclassified sources, the latter topic will be the subject of analysis.

This is a study of Soviet military doctrine and capabilities, and their relation to Soviet foreign policy objectives and East-West relations during the Gorbachev period. The role of military power in Gorbachev's foreign policy and the dismantling of the military confrontation in Europe is examined.

The most significant strategic development in the second half of the twentieth century has been the emergence of the Soviet Union as a superpower. This dominant position is firmly founded on military strength, and the Soviet Union's relentless expansionist policies would be impossible without the support of strongly manned and well equipped armed forces. More than for any other nation, the USSR's political position, in Europe and throughout the world, depends on the might of the Soviet war machine. Even in internal affairs the generals and admirals have massive influence on the development of Soviet policy. - Jacket flap.

Armed revolution and civil war gave birth to the Soviet Union, world War II propelled it to global pre-eminence, and the Cold War contributed to the Soviet Union's demise. Given Marxism-Leninism's idological preoccupation with war and threats of war, it is understandable that the spectre of war should play a vital role in the life and fate of the Soviet state. This study of Soviet military strategy is based upon the twin pillars of Soviet political-military actions and Soviet writings on the subject of military strategy. Thanks to the policy of glasnost, it incorporates Soviet materials hitherto unavailable in the West. It aims to be not simply a retrospective account of what was, but to form part of the context for what will be in the future.

Many people have been instrumental in helping see this book through to completion. First, I want to thank Robbin Laird, not only for his professional encouragement over the years, but especially for his suggestion to do this book in the first place. Nor would this effort have been possible--or nearly as enjoyable-- without the support and friendship of Susan McEachern. I would also like to thank Jackie Evans for her assistance in helping to prepare the manuscript.