How does domestic monetary policy in systemic countries spillover to the rest of the world? This paper examines the transmission channel of domestic monetary policy in the cross-border context. We use exogenous shocks to monetary policy in systemically important economies, including the U.S., and local projections to estimate the dynamic effect of monetary policy shocks on bilateral cross-border bank lending. We find robust evidence that an increase in funding costs following an exogenous monetary tightening leads to a statistically and economically significant decline in cross-border bank lending. The effect is weakened during periods of high uncertainty. In contrast, the effect is found to not vary according to the degree of borrower country riskiness, further weakening support for the international portfolio rebalancing channel.

We examine the role of bank balance sheet strength in the transmission of financial sector shocks to the real economy. Using data from the syndicated loan market, we exploit variation in banks’ reliance on wholesale funding and their structural liquidity positions in 2007Q2 to estimate the impact of exposure to market freezes during 2007–08 on the supply of bank credit. We find that banks with strong balance sheets were better able to maintain lending during the crisis. In particular, banks that were ex-ante more dependent on market funding and had lower structural liquidity reduced the supply of credit more than other banks. However, higher and better-quality capital mitigated this effect. Our results suggest that strong bank balance sheets are key for the recovery of credit following crises, and provide support for regulatory proposals under the Basel III framework.

We study the role of the bank-lending channel in propagating fluctuations in commodity prices to credit aggregates and economic activity in developing countries. We use data on more than 1,600 banks from 78 developing countries to analyze the transmission of changes in international commodity prices to domestic bank lending. Identification relies on a bankspecific time-varying measure of bank sensitivity to changes in commodity prices, based on daily data on bank stock prices. We find that a fall in commodity prices reduces bank lending, although this effect is confined to low-income countries and driven by commodity price busts. Banks with relatively lower deposits and poor asset quality transmit commodity price changes to lending more aggressively, supporting the hypothesis that the overall credit response to commodity prices works also through the credit supply channel. Our results also show that there is no significant difference in the behavior of foreign and domestic banks in the transmission process, reflecting the regional footprint of foreign banks in developing countries.

Banks are an integral element of the Third World debt problems but their activities have received little direct analysis. This work investigates various aspects of commercial bank lending to developing countries, examining past behaviour and looking at the likely future evolution of bank lending.

The primary questions addressed by this study, first published in 1988, focus on how private bankers made decisions on the creditworthiness of developing countries during the 1970s and what the implications of these decision rules are for the developing countries today. Based on interviews with senior bankers about their decision rules, the author has developed artificial intelligence-based simulations of their images of creditworthiness. Discussed are contemporary proposals for solving the debt crisis.

This paper analyzes the drivers of cross-border bank lending to 49 Emerging Markets (EMs) during the period 1990Q1-2014Q4, by assessing the impact of monetary, financial and real sector shocks in both the US and the euro area. The literature has traditionally highlighted the influence of US monetary policy on driving cross-border bank flows, and more recently the importance of both US and Euro Area (EA) financial/banking sectors’ related variables. Our contribution is the simultaneous analysis of the role of these US and EA drivers, as well as their interactions with real sector shocks. We corroborate the negative impact of US monetary policy tightening on cross-border lending to EMs, but we find that EA monetary policy seems to have an impact mostly on Emerging Europe, reflecting the fact that cross-border lending to most other EM regions is dollar denominated. We also find that real sector shocks in both the US and EA trigger an increase in cross-border lending, but less in EA when modeling the financial sector. Finally, for financial sector shocks, such as those associated with a decrease in bank leverage, our results indicate a broad-based overall contraction of cross-border lending if the shock originates in the US, and heterogenous effects across borrowing regions if the shock originates in the EA.

Using a framework of volatile markets Emerging Market Bank Lending and Credit Risk Control covers the theoretical and practical foundations of contemporary credit risk with implications for bank management. Drawing a direct connection between risk and its effects on credit analysis and decisions, the book discusses how credit risk should be correctly anticipated and its impact mitigated within framework of sound credit culture and process in line with the Basel Accords. This is the only practical book that specifically guides bankers through the analysis and management of the peculiar credit risks of counterparties in emerging economies. Each chapter features a one-page overview that introduces its subject and its outcomes. Chapters include summaries, review questions, references, and endnotes. Emphasizes bank credit risk issues peculiar to emerging economies Explains how to attain asset and portfolio quality through efficient lending and credit risk management in high risk-prone emerging economies Presents a simple structure, devoid of complex models, for creating, assessing and managing credit and portfolio risks in emerging economies Provides credit risk impact mitigation strategies in line with the Basel Accords

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