This open access volume surveys the state of the field to examine whether a fifth wave of deterrence theory is emerging. Bringing together insights from world-leading experts from three continents, the volume identifies the most pressing strategic challenges, frames theoretical concepts, and describes new strategies. The use and utility of deterrence in today’s strategic environment is a topic of paramount concern to scholars, strategists and policymakers. Ours is a period of considerable strategic turbulence, which in recent years has featured a renewed emphasis on nuclear weapons used in defence postures across different theatres; a dramatic growth in the scale of military cyber capabilities and the frequency with which these are used; and rapid technological progress including the proliferation of long-range strike and unmanned systems. These military-strategic developments occur in a polarized international system, where cooperation between leading powers on arms control regimes is breaking down, states widely make use of hybrid conflict strategies, and the number of internationalized intrastate proxy conflicts has quintupled over the past two decades. Contemporary conflict actors exploit a wider gamut of coercive instruments, which they apply across a wider range of domains. The prevalence of multi-domain coercion across but also beyond traditional dimensions of armed conflict raises an important question: what does effective deterrence look like in the 21st century? Answering that question requires a re-appraisal of key theoretical concepts and dominant strategies of Western and non-Western actors in order to assess how they hold up in today’s world. Air Commodore Professor Dr. Frans Osinga is the Chair of the War Studies Department of the Netherlands Defence Academy and the Special Chair in War Studies at the University Leiden. Dr. Tim Sweijs is the Director of Research at The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies and a Research Fellow at the Faculty of Military Sciences of the Netherlands Defence Academy in Breda.

Intro -- Foreword -- Contents -- Editors and Contributors -- 1 Introduction -- 1.1 Introduction -- 1.2 The Compliance and Integrity in International Military Trade (CIIMT) Master Programme -- 1.2.1 Focus of the MSc Programme on CIIMT -- 1.2.2 Learning Styles and Structure of the MSc Programme on CIIMT -- 1.3 Outline of NL ARMS 2021 -- References -- 2 Economics of Arms Trade: What Do We Know? -- 2.1 Introduction -- 2.2 Research Methodology -- 2.2.1 Scope -- 2.2.2 Selection -- 2.2.3 Research Synthesis -- 2.3 Weapons of Mass Destruction -- 2.3.1 Spreading Temptation: Proliferation and Peaceful Nuclear Cooperation Agreements -- 2.3.2 Almost Nuclear: Introducing the Nuclear Latency Dataset -- 2.3.3 Research on Weapons of Mass Destruction: What Do We Know? -- 2.4 Major Weapon Systems -- 2.4.1 The Gravity of Arms -- 2.4.2 Arming the Embargoed -- 2.4.3 Arms Production, National Defence Spending and Arms Trade -- 2.4.4 Trading Arms and the Demand for Military Expenditure -- 2.4.5 Arm Your Friends and Save on Defence? -- 2.4.6 Network Interdependencies and the Evolution of the International Arms Trade -- 2.4.7 Research into Major Weapon Systems: What Do We Know? -- 2.5 Small Arms and Light Weapons -- 2.5.1 Weaponomics, the Economics of Small Arms -- 2.5.2 Research into Small Arms and Light Weapons: What Do We Know? -- 2.6 Dual-Use Goods -- 2.6.1 Exporting Weapons of Mass Destruction? -- 2.6.2 Taking a Walk on the Supply Side: The Determinants of Civil Nuclear Cooperation -- 2.6.3 Research into Dual-Use Goods: What Do We Know? -- 2.7 Analysis -- 2.8 Conclusion: An Agenda for Research -- References -- 3 Export Control Regimes-Present-Day Challenges and Opportunities -- 3.1 Introduction -- 3.2 Export Control Regimes -- 3.2.1 The Coordinating Committee for the Multilateral Export Controls -- 3.2.2 Regimes and Treaties -- 3.2.3 Characteristics Regimes.

This open access volume surveys the state of the field to examine whether a fifth wave of deterrence theory is emerging. Bringing together insights from world-leading experts from three continents, the volume identifies the most pressing strategic challenges, frames theoretical concepts, and describes new strategies. The use and utility of deterrence in today's strategic environment is a topic of paramount concern to scholars, strategists and policymakers. Ours is a period of considerable strategic turbulence, which in recent years has featured a renewed emphasis on nuclear weapons used in defence postures across different theatres; a dramatic growth in the scale of military cyber capabilities and the frequency with which these are used; and rapid technological progress including the proliferation of long-range strike and unmanned systems. These military-strategic developments occur in a polarized international system, where cooperation between leading powers on arms control regimes is breaking down, states widely make use of hybrid conflict strategies, and the number of internationalized intrastate proxy conflicts has quintupled over the past two decades. Contemporary conflict actors exploit a wider gamut of coercive instruments, which they apply across a wider range of domains. The prevalence of multi-domain coercion across but also beyond traditional dimensions of armed conflict raises an important question: what does effective deterrence look like in the 21st century? Answering that question requires a re-appraisal of key theoretical concepts and dominant strategies of Western and non-Western actors in order to assess how they hold up in today's world. Air Commodore Professor Dr. Frans Osinga is the Chair of the War Studies Department of the Netherlands Defence Academy and the Special Chair in War Studies at the University Leiden. Dr. Tim Sweijs is the Director of Research at The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies and a Research Fellow at the Faculty of Military Sciences of the Netherlands Defence Academy in Breda.

This book has as its subject matter the academic education of officers and builds on the signing of the Bologna Declaration in 1999 by twenty-nine European ministers for Education and Science, who thereby agreed to coordinate higher education across Europe, by, for instance, the implementation of the Bachelor's and Master's system. In the meantime, military academies have also introduced the BaMa system into their programs for officers’ education, which marks a transition from the old days, when officers’ education took place within a national military system, under military command, and was firmly grounded in principles, traditions and needs, as professed by the Ministries of Defence and the armed forces in particular. So the Bologna Declaration can be seen as crucial leverage for the development of in-house academic degree programs as a fundamental part of officers’ education. With this volume, the editors of NL ARMS 2019 strive to offer a platform to both academics and military and civilian practitioners, as well as to combinations of these, to reflect and share their thoughts on officers’ education `before and after' Bologna, both in The Netherlands and abroad. To this end, controversies and challenges, affecting various aspects and systems of officers’ education, have been grouped into five themes. Respectively, the first four themes comprise institutional settings and change; educational philosophy; educational challenges and reflective practices; and didactical solutions. The fifth theme, international perspectives, provides insights into the strategic environments and challenges faced by sister-academies, as well as ways to further officers' education across Europe, such as offered by Erasmus programs. All the editors of this year's volume are affiliated with the Faculty of Military Sciences of the Netherlands Defence Academy in Breda, The Netherlands.

The moment in the sun for special operations sometimes appears to have passed, seemingly eclipsed by preparations for potential conflict under the guise of "great power" competition, combined with failure in Afghanistan. Yet the war in Ukraine serves as a reminder that special operations play an even greater role today?before, during and presumably after conflict. The challenge remains dealing with current irregular and hybrid threats, at the same time as preparing for an uncertain future, as threats and technologies evolve at a dizzying pace. Focusing too much on the future of conventional warfare creates a void in national security discussions related to special operations. This book seeks to fill that gap, drawing on the expertise of scholars and practitioners in the field, from the Indo-Pacific, Europe and the United States, to answer what, if anything, special operations can or should seek to do, and how. The contributors explore such topics as proxies, non-state special forces, capabilities, innovation and transformation, artificial intelligence, and special operations in space and cyberspace. These chapters are united by their analysis that special operations will have future strategic and operational value, for allies and adversaries alike, provided that difficult choices are made in the present.

This book provides a comprehensive study of border control: from data analysis andinformation warfare, frameworks for command and control, and game-theoretic riskmanagement, up to the (optimal) deployment of law enforcement missions. Innovative about this book is that it approaches the subject from several angles, aimingto connect theory and practice of law enforcement missions with risk management and/or quantitative modelling. Some chapters focus on legal challenges and informationwarfare, while others provide quantitative modelling of military asset deployment inthe area of interest, or show the benefits of cooperative wireless sensor networks forborder control. A case study of the Dutch Border Security Team supplements the theory. The publication is ideally suited for reference use by students, academicians, researchersand professionals in the field of border control and related areas. H. Monsuur is Professor of Military Operations Research, J.M. Jansen is AssociateProfessor of Operational ICT, and F.J. Marchal is Lecturer of International/MilitaryLaw at the Faculty of Military Sciences of the Netherlands Defence Academy in DenHelder, The Netherlands.

This book examines key issue areas of Indo-Pacific strategies such as cyber security, space security, maritime security, emerging technologies, and institutional frameworks in the context of deepening US–China rivalry. With greater interconnectedness across various fields, the Indo-Pacific region faces greater security challenges including future strategic power competition. States are increasingly engaging in intense strategic activities and strengthening partnerships. The first part of book focuses on the strategic competition between the United States and China in different areas including cyber security, space security, maritime security, emerging technologies, and institutional frameworks. The second part of the book presents the perspectives of different local actors in the regional theatre and the intentions and concepts behind their growing interconnectedness under Indo-Pacific strategies, including China, Russia, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and North Korea. Through examining different aspects of US–Indo-Pacific strategy, this edited book contributes to a better understanding of Indo-Pacific strategy and its implications for broader security cooperation in a more interconnected world. The book will be of interest to scholars and policy makers working on Asian Security, Politics, International Relations, and the security dynamics of East Asia and the Indo-Pacific.

Survival, the IISS’s bimonthly journal, challenges conventional wisdom and brings fresh, often controversial, perspectives on strategic issues of the moment. In this issue: Lawrence Freedman assesses Russia’s nuclear red line and how Vladimir Putin’s views compare to those of Russian pundits Steven Simon and Jonathan Stevenson explore the roots of Hamas’s attack on Israel on 7 October, and the options available to the United States for restraining the Israeli government Charlie Laderman assesses the similarities between December 1941 – when Germany and Japan, determining it to be inevitable, declared war on the US – and the ongoing geopolitical crises governments face today Sara Bjerg Moller reflects on NATO allies’ failure to deliver on national collective-defence targets as the Alliance approaches its 75th anniversary Lynn Kuok explores China’s reshaping of international law to achieve its strategic goals, and other countries’ failure to do so And seven more thought-provoking pieces, as well as our regular Book Reviews and Noteworthy column. Editor: Dr Dana Allin Managing Editor: Jonathan Stevenson Associate Editor: Carolyn West Editorial Assistant: Conor Hodges

This book examines new and challenging political aspects of cyber security and presents it as an issue defined by socio-technological uncertainty and political fragmentation. Structured along two broad themes and providing empirical examples for how socio-technical changes and political responses interact, the first part of the book looks at the current use of cyber space in conflictual settings, while the second focuses on political responses by state and non-state actors in an environment defined by uncertainties. Within this, it highlights four key debates that encapsulate the complexities and paradoxes of cyber security politics from a Western perspective – how much political influence states can achieve via cyber operations and what context factors condition the (limited) strategic utility of such operations; the role of emerging digital technologies and how the dynamics of the tech innovation process reinforce the fragmentation of the governance space; how states attempt to uphold stability in cyberspace and, more generally, in their strategic relations; and how the shared responsibility of state, economy, and society for cyber security continues to be re-negotiated in an increasingly trans-sectoral and transnational governance space. This book will be of much interest to students of cyber security, global governance, technology studies, and international relations. The Open Access version of this book, available at www.taylorfrancis.com, has been made available under a Creative Commons Attribution-Non Commercial-No Derivatives 4.0 license.